Vulcan Energy: VanEck Stake Hike and Drilling Wins Set Stage for Make-or-Break AGM on May 28

Institutional confidence from VanEck and operational milestones at Lionheart project drive Vulcan shares higher ahead of key AGM vote on board seat and project finance.

The countdown to Vulcan Energy Resources' annual general meeting in Perth on May 28 has become a lightning rod for investor attention, with the company's stock surging almost 10% on Friday as institutional confidence and operational progress collided with the looming decision on a €2.2 billion project financing package. The shares closed at €2.66 in Stuttgart, a daily gain of 9.92% after touching an intraday high of €2.68.

Behind the rally lies a clear signal from the institutional camp. VanEck Associates has lifted its stake in the lithium developer to 6.06%, equivalent to roughly 28.96 million shares. The U.S. asset manager's holding stood at 5.04% when it was last disclosed in January, and the additional purchases were made up to May 18, 2026. The move comes as Vulcan also benefits from its inclusion in the S&P/ASX 200 index at the end of March, a change that increases visibility for passive and active portfolios alike.

Yet the same meeting that has drawn VanEck in will also test the boardroom dynamic. On the agenda is the election of Roberto Gallardo to the board. Gallardo represents Hochtief, the construction group that led a €169 million equity investment in Vulcan last December and now holds a 15.4% stake. A seat at the table would give Hochtief direct oversight as the company transitions from development to industrial production — a prospect that is likely to spark debate.

The real puzzle remains the financing of the Lionheart project in Germany. Vulcan is assembling a package worth €2.2 billion, comprising €1.2 billion in senior secured loans from 13 institutions including the European Investment Bank and several export credit agencies, plus roughly €204 million in government grants. The target for signing is the current second quarter, but no firm date has been set. Until then, the company is funding construction from its own balance sheet.

Liquidity stood at €364.34 million at the end of March, after an investment-related cash outflow of around €139.76 million in the first quarter. Management points to a runway of more than 50 quarters based on current operating costs, but the market is watching the financing timeline acutely. Without the package, the capital burden remains firmly on Vulcan's shoulders.

Operationally, ground is shifting. At the Industriepark Höchst in Frankfurt, the company is installing a commercial electrolysis system — a central piece of its planned lithium production from geothermal brine. The drilling campaign continues to deliver. The sixth Lionheart well, LSC-2, has reached a depth of 3,000 metres, with completion and flow testing due in the current quarter. The previous production well, LSC-1, recorded flow rates of 105 to 125 litres per second, supporting the project's hydrological assumptions. Vulcan's drilling subsidiary, Vercana, is preparing to bring a second rig online in the second half of the year.

The lithium market is providing tailwinds. In China, lithium carbonate prices climbed above 175,000 yuan per tonne in May, a gain of roughly 50% since the start of the year and the highest level since 2023. Additional demand from data centre battery storage systems, which require more lithium than typical electric vehicles, is also helping to improve the backdrop for producers and developers.

Vulcan has already locked in offtake agreements with Umicore, LG Energy Solution, Stellantis and Glencore, with durations of six to ten years. Around 72% of the contracted volumes include fixed prices or price floors, providing a buffer against market volatility.

The AGM will also lay bare the gap between aspiration and execution. In the past two months, performance rights tied to internal milestones have lapsed: 413,811 rights expired at the end of March, and another 79,297 in May. While the forfeitures reduce potential dilution, they also signal that certain targets were not hit — a concern when the company is burning cash on construction.

Canaccord Genuity maintains a buy rating on the stock, with a price target of €4.45 according to consensus, or 323 pence for the London-listed shares. From Friday's close, that implies nearly a doubling, provided the financing materialises and the project stays on schedule. CEO Cris Moreno will have the floor in Perth to convince shareholders that the pieces are falling into place. The market will be listening for one thing above all: a firm date for the €2.2 billion cheque.