Voestalpine Shares: Market Strategists See Further Upside Following Strong Rally

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With Voestalpine stock having surged over 114% in the past year, a critical debate has emerged among investors: has the equity's valuation become stretched? Contrary to this growing skepticism, analysts from two major financial institutions have recently reinforced bullish stances, pointing to continued potential for share price appreciation. Revised price targets suggest these experts anticipate a durable improvement in the company's earnings power.

The analysts' confidence appears to be grounded in tangible industry developments. On Friday, the industry association EUROMETAL reported successful efforts to implement price increases across the European steel market. Notably, hikes were secured for heavy plate and beams, driven by elevated scrap costs and new regulatory charges.

This pricing dynamic is crucial for Voestalpine. The ability to pass on increased input costs to customers is a key margin defense in a challenging operating environment. This factor gains added significance following recent warnings from CEO Herbert Eibensteiner regarding pressures from CO2 reforms. Current market data, however, indicates the industry possesses some capacity to price these costs into its products.

Revised Targets and Robust Earnings Projections

Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its 'Buy' recommendation on Friday, maintaining a price target of €44. This view aligns with a recent update from British investment bank Barclays, which raised its own target from €35 to €44. With the shares currently trading just above €40, this implies a near-term upside potential of approximately 10%.

Barclays provided particularly detailed earnings forecasts to support its optimistic outlook. The bank's analysts project not merely stable returns, but a significant acceleration in profitability in the coming years, accompanied by rising shareholder returns:

• Earnings Acceleration: Earnings per share are forecast to jump from €2.58 (2025/26) to €4.27 (2027/28).
• Dividend Growth: The per-share dividend is projected to increase from €0.80 to €1.30 by 2028.

Valuation Context and Trading Divergence

At first glance, a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio as high as 36 might seem demanding. Yet this metric is quickly contextualized by the substantial growth projected through 2028. The market is evidently pricing in an expected operational turnaround.

A curious short-term divergence was observed in trading patterns. While the stock closed robustly at €40.16 on its home market in Vienna, its US-traded ADR (American Depositary Receipt) fell over 3% on exceptionally high volume. Such disparities between exchanges are often technical in nature but warrant investor attention.

All eyes are now on a key date: February 11, 2026. On this day, the group will release its third-quarter results. Should Voestalpine meet or exceed the market's expectation for earnings of €0.36 per share, it would provide fundamental validation for the recent share price advance and potentially pave the way toward the €44 target set by analysts.

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