Voestalpine’s Twin-Track Strategy: A €1bn Aerospace Win Offsets US Tariff Pain

Voestalpine gains from a €1bn Airbus deal and EU trade protections, but US tariffs slash profits. Stock at €43.02 is oversold with RSI under 28.

The Austrian steelmaker is navigating a sharply divided global landscape. On one side, a landmark deal with Airbus and a protective EU trade shield are boosting its home market; on the other, punishing US tariffs are carving a deep hole in its American earnings. The result is a stock that looks cheap by the numbers but is struggling to regain momentum.

Shares currently trade at €43.02, roughly 12% below February’s peak of €49.10. Despite that pullback, the stock has still gained about 11% since the start of the year. Technical indicators suggest the sell-off may have gone too far: the relative strength index sits at just under 28, firmly in oversold territory.

The Airbus Deal That Changes the Game

In April, Voestalpine’s High Performance Metals division secured a series of aerospace contracts worth roughly €1bn in total, spread over five years. The centrepiece is a supply agreement with Airbus covering high-performance materials, forged parts and logistics services. Production will take place at the company’s sites in Kapfenberg and Mürzzuschlag in Styria, as well as at its Brazilian subsidiary Villares Metals.

This is the largest single aerospace order package in the company’s history — a clear signal that Voestalpine is carving out a bigger role in the aviation supply chain as the sector recovers.

EU Regulation Tilts the Playing Field

The regulatory environment is shifting in Voestalpine’s favour. From July 2026, European steel import quotas will be halved, while tariffs on imports outside those quotas will double to 50%. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, already in force since January, adds €40 to €70 per tonne to the cost of imported steel. For a domestic producer with relatively low emissions, these measures provide a structural competitive advantage.

The company is also positioning itself ahead of potential PFAS bans in Europe. At the wire & Tube trade fair, it unveiled a new wire coating called phreeco, which replaces traditional zinc phosphate systems with a wax-based formula that contains no phosphates, heavy metals or PFAS. The product promises longer tool life and higher production efficiency — a timely offering as regulators tighten restrictions on per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances.

US Tariffs Bite Deep

The picture across the Atlantic is far less rosy. Since March 2025, new US steel and aluminium tariffs have been in effect, and Voestalpine is feeling the pain. The duties are expected to reduce the current fiscal year’s profit by a mid-double-digit million-euro amount. The Tubulars division has been hit hardest, facing levies of up to 50% on specialty pipes, compounded by low oil prices.

The full extent of the damage will become clear on 3 June 2026, when the company publishes its complete annual report. Management will also provide initial indications of demand for the new phreeco coating products.

Solid Operating Performance

Despite the tariff headwinds, Voestalpine’s underlying business remains robust. In the first three quarters of fiscal 2025/26, EBITDA rose 7.2% to €1bn, while EBIT climbed nearly 21% to €473m. Free cash flow reached €345m, and net debt fell by more than a quarter to €1.4bn.

For the full year, the company expects EBITDA in the range of €1.4bn to €1.55bn.

Financing and Shareholder Returns

Voestalpine has been active on the financing front. In mid-April, it placed a €35m tap on an existing convertible bond, bringing the total volume of the instrument, which matures in 2028, to €285m. The conversion price is around €40.49, meaning up to seven million new shares could be issued — roughly 4% of the current share capital. Existing shareholders have no subscription rights.

The annual results are due in June 2026, and the July annual general meeting will see the first application of the company’s new dividend policy: a minimum payout of €0.40 per share, plus 30% of net profit, provided the ratio of net financial debt to EBITDA remains below 2.0.

Meanwhile, construction of the new electric arc furnace hall in Linz has reached the shell-completion stage, marking a tangible step in the company’s green steel transformation.