Voestalpine’s Green Steel Push Collides With a Brutal Market Reality

Voestalpine hits carbon-neutral milestones with hydrogen deal and electric arc furnace, but shares plunge to RSI 19 amid industry job cuts, export slump, and tax hike fears.

The gap between Voestalpine’s operational achievements and its stock price has rarely been wider. The Austrian steelmaker is hitting concrete milestones in its shift toward carbon-neutral production, yet the shares are trading under severe technical pressure. At €41.22, the stock has slipped below its 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index sits at an extreme 19 — a level that historically signals a deeply oversold market and often precedes a bottom.

Hydrogen Deal and First Deliveries Mark Progress

The Linz-based group has signed a long-term agreement with Germany’s Westfalen AG to secure hydrogen supplies, the energy source that will eventually replace traditional blast furnaces. At the same time, Voestalpine has begun delivering initial volumes of low-carbon steel to automotive supplier GEDIA. The physical transformation is also taking shape at its Linz site, where the shell for the first new electric arc furnace is now complete, keeping the multibillion-euro investment project on schedule.

Industry-Wide Pain Hits Hard

But these positive signals are being drowned out by the broader turmoil gripping the Austrian metals sector. The industry has shed roughly 14,000 jobs over the past two years, with temporary workers bearing a disproportionate share of the cuts. The purchasing managers’ index for the industrial sector slipped to 51.2 points in April, and both production and order intake have turned negative for the first time in three months.

Input costs are soaring at their fastest pace since autumn 2022, driven by energy, raw materials and transport. Disrupted supply chains linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are compounding the procurement challenges. On the political front, the government is planning to raise the corporate tax rate to 24 percent for companies with profits above €1 million, a move intended to fund lower non-wage labor costs but one that industry leaders warn will hammer international competitiveness.

Export Weakness Forces a Strategic Shift

The export picture is equally troubling. Business with the United States, a key market, is collapsing, while modest growth in China fails to offset the losses. The response from Austrian metal companies is stark: 60 percent now plan to ramp up hiring abroad rather than at home.

EU Protection and Dividend Focus

Some relief may come from Brussels. Starting in July, stricter EU import rules will impose a 50 percent penalty tariff on steel shipments that exceed duty-free quotas. Voestalpine, which already meets the bloc’s toughest environmental standards, stands to benefit from a more insulated European market.

Investors are now looking ahead to June 3, when the company will publish its annual report for the past fiscal year. Attention will center on cash flow and the new dividend policy. Management has proposed a base dividend of at least €0.40 per share, plus a variable component, with a total payout equivalent to 30 percent of net profit. The plan goes to a shareholder vote at the annual general meeting on July 1.