Vincorion Stock Sheds All Post-IPO Gains as Powerful Q1 Numbers Fail to Halt Slide

Defence supplier Vincorion's shares fall back to €17 IPO price, down 23% in a month, while revenue jumps 40% and order backlog hits €1.2 billion.

Vincorion’s equity has wiped out every gain since its March stock market debut, with the share price slumping to just a whisper above the €17.00 IPO level. The defence and aerospace supplier closed the week at €16.99, a 5% drop on Friday that leaves it virtually unchanged from the listing price three months ago.

The sell-off has been relentless over the past month: on a 30-day view, the stock has tumbled nearly 23%, dragging it 28% below its 52-week high of €23.78 recorded in early May. The relative strength index now sits at 37.0, firmly in oversold territory, while the price trades 6% under its 50-day moving average.

That price action stands in stark contrast to the operational picture. Vincorion posted first-quarter revenue of €69 million, a 40% increase year-on-year. Adjusted EBIT came in at €12.4 million, delivering an 18% margin. Even more striking was the order intake, which surged from €38.8 million to €149.4 million, swelling the order backlog to €1.2 billion.

Management is sticking to its full-year forecast, guiding for revenue between €280 million and €320 million with an adjusted operating margin of 18% to 19%. The medium-term plan targets sales of around €300 million by 2026.

SDAX Promotion Does Little to Help

The company was due to join the SDAX small-cap index on 22 June, a milestone that usually triggers buying from index-tracking funds. Yet the market response has been a shrug. Alongside Vincorion, Redcare Pharmacy and Jungheinrich will enter the index, displacing names like Borussia Dortmund and ProSiebenSat.1. For now, the formal upgrade has done nothing to arrest the stock’s decline.

Part of the weakness may reflect the structure of the IPO itself. Vincorion listed on 20 March in Frankfurt’s Prime Standard, with majority owner STAR Capital placing roughly 20.3 million shares at €17.00. The total offering, including the greenshoe, raised €345 million and gave the company a market capitalisation of €850 million. STAR Capital retains 47.5% of the shares, leaving a free float of 52.5%.

The swift retreat to the offer price suggests that any initial euphoria has fully dissipated. The stock’s 66% volatility reading, however, underlines how quickly the tide can turn.

Upcoming Industry Events Offer a Chance to Reset

Management will have several opportunities in the coming weeks to shift the narrative. The HHO Symposium takes place in Rheinmünster on 10 June, followed by the Eurosatory defence trade fair in Paris from 15 June. These events could serve as a platform to announce new contracts or underscore the company’s pipeline, potentially providing a catalyst beyond the SDAX promotion.

The disconnect between Vincorion’s operational momentum and its share price is glaring. With a record order book and double-digit revenue growth, the current valuation near the IPO floor looks cheap – provided the market eventually chooses to focus on the numbers rather than the short-term volatility.