VINCORION’s Post-IPO Rally Gathers Pace as Greenshoe Support Falls Away

VINCORION stock climbs 12% after greenshoe expiry, with net profit surging 130% to €19.4M and a €1.1B order backlog. Valuation discount persists vs. defence peers.

The stabilisation period is over, and VINCORION’s shares are proving they can stand on their own. Seven trading sessions after the formal end of price support, the stock has climbed nearly 12 percent, recovering much of the ground lost since its Frankfurt debut. The shares now trade at €17.59, comfortably above the €17 IPO price, giving the defence and aerospace supplier a market capitalisation of roughly €880 million.

Greenshoe Expiry Reshapes the Share Register

The lifting of the stabilisation mechanism marks a structural shift in the shareholder base. J.P. Morgan SE, acting as stabilisation manager, partially exercised the greenshoe option on 17 April, acquiring around 2.1 million shares at the IPO price of €17. Prior to that, the bank had bought nearly 300,000 shares between €15.30 and €17.00 to support the stock. The greenshoe option from majority owner STAR Capital expired on 23 April, meaning its voting stake has likely fallen permanently below 50 percent.

The resulting increase in free float has opened the door for institutional anchor investors. Fidelity International, Invesco and T. Rowe Price now sit on the register, though a significant counterweight remains: a large portion of STAR Capital’s holding is locked up until autumn 2026 under a contractual holding period.

Profitability Surge Provides the Backdrop

The market’s renewed confidence rests on a dramatic improvement in the company’s financials. For the 2025 financial year, net profit more than doubled to €19.4 million, a gain of roughly 130 percent year-on-year. Revenue rose 18 percent to €240.3 million, underpinned by three core divisions: Vehicle Systems contributed €103.83 million, Power Systems €74.75 million and Aviation €66.32 million. Earnings before interest and tax climbed 64 percent to €33.7 million.

The balance sheet is equally robust. Net debt stands at just 15 percent of equity, and operating profit comfortably covers interest payments, leaving headroom for future investment. An order backlog of €1.1 billion provides multi-year visibility.

Valuation Discount Persists Despite Strong Growth

Even with the recent rally, VINCORION trades at a discount to its defence-sector peers. The price-to-earnings ratio of 46 is well below RENK’s 53, HENSOLDT’s 95 and Rheinmetall’s triple-digit multiple. The company has grown revenue at an average annual rate of 22 percent over the past three years, a pace that suggests the current valuation may understate its potential.

SENTINEL Project Opens NATO Door

Away from the financials, a strategic milestone is taking shape. Since 19 April, VINCORION has been testing its energy systems under the EU-funded SENTINEL project, which develops autonomous power supplies for mobile field camps. The European Defence Fund is backing the programme with nearly €40 million. VINCORION is supplying two core components — a generator module and an energy storage module, each rated at 50 kilowatts — and, as coordinator of 42 partners, holds overall responsibility for the storage system. Initial tests are underway with the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, with follow-up trials planned in the Netherlands and on Aruba to prove the systems under extreme climatic conditions. The project is widely seen as a gateway to NATO procurement programmes.

First Quarterly Report as a Litmus Test

The immediate focus for investors now shifts to 7 May, when VINCORION publishes its first quarterly report since listing. Management has guided for 2026 revenue of between €280 million and €320 million, to be funded from operating cash flow of €38 million. No fresh capital flowed to the company at the IPO, so the report will be the first real test of whether organic growth can sustain the momentum without external support — and whether rising defence budgets are translating into new orders for its mechatronics and power electronics systems.