Viking Therapeutics Gains Momentum as Rival Stumbles

Viking Therapeutics shares surged 11% after Novo Nordisk's CagriSema failed to match Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide in a key trial, boosting prospects for Viking's rival drug VK2735.

Shares of Viking Therapeutics experienced a significant boost this week, driven not by internal news, but by a clinical setback for a major competitor in the weight-loss drug market. Investor sentiment shifted following disappointing trial data from Novo Nordisk, prompting a reassessment of the competitive landscape for GLP-1-based obesity treatments.

A Competitor's Setback Provides an Unexpected Lift

The catalyst was an update from Novo Nordisk concerning its Phase 3 REDEFINE 4 trial. The data revealed that the injectable obesity drug candidate CagriSema failed to meet its goal of not underperforming Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide in efficacy. In the reported results from the 809-participant study, weight loss after 84 weeks was 20.2% for CagriSema, compared to 23.6% for Tirzepatide.

This news sent Novo Nordisk shares to a 52-week low while lifting several rivals. Viking's stock closed Monday's session at $34.39, marking an advance of approximately 11% from its prior close of $31.03. Trading volume surged to around 4.7 million shares, well above the stock's average daily level.

Implications for Viking's Lead Candidate VK2735

The market reaction is primarily focused on Viking's key drug candidate, VK2735. This dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist is currently in Phase 3 development under the VANQUISH program. The market's logic is straightforward: with CagriSema failing to reach the efficacy bar set by Tirzepatide, a potential future competitor in the most potent drug class has been set back—at least for now. This scenario benefits Viking, assuming VK2735 eventually achieves FDA approval.

Commenting on the development, an analyst from William Blair noted that the REDEFINE 4 results reinforce the dual GLP-1/GIP class as the leader in the obesity market. This class includes Eli Lilly's approved drug Zepbound (Tirzepatide) and several candidates in Phase 3, such as Viking's VK2735, Kailera's Riputapatid, and Roche's CT-388.

Recent Operational and Financial Updates

The positive momentum also builds upon recent operational milestones Viking outlined in its Q4 and full-year 2025 report, released in mid-February. The company reported that the VANQUISH-1 trial is fully enrolled, with over 4,500 patients—exceeding the original target and ahead of schedule. Recruitment for VANQUISH-2, targeting roughly 1,100 patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes, is nearing completion.

Furthermore, following feedback from a December 2025 End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA, Viking plans to initiate a Phase 3 trial for an oral formulation of VK2735 in the third quarter of 2026. A separate maintenance dose study, fully enrolled with about 180 patients, is expected to report results in the same quarter. The company also intends to file an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel amylin agonist this quarter.

Financially, Viking reported a cash position of $706 million as of December 31, 2025. Research and development expenses climbed to $345.0 million in 2025, up from $101.6 million in 2024, reflecting the rapid progress of its Phase 3 programs. The company posted a net loss of approximately $360 million for the year. Viking continues to generate no revenue, with its diluted earnings per share for the trailing twelve months at -$3.19. Its market capitalization stands near $3.5 billion.

For additional context, earlier Phase 2 data for subcutaneously administered VK2735 demonstrated weight reductions of up to 14.7% after 13 weeks.

Looking ahead, key near-term catalysts include results from the maintenance dose study and the planned initiation of the oral Phase 3 program—both slated for Q3 2026. Concurrently, the high cash burn rate driven by expensive late-stage trials remains a central factor, which Viking must manage with its existing cash reserves for the foreseeable future.