Verbio’s Chemical Diversification Takes Centre Stage After Brutal Weekly Sell-Off

Verbio invests €100M in a biobased chemicals plant at Bitterfeld, while a sharp stock sell-off triggered by US-Iran crude oil talks contrasts with a strong earnings guidance upgrade and regulatory tailwinds.

Verbio is pressing ahead with a biobased specialty chemicals plant in Bitterfeld, a move designed to wean the company off its traditional reliance on crude oil prices. The facility, set to start producing the intermediate chemical 1-Decen in the second half of 2026, will supply ingredients for high-performance lubricants used in wind turbines. The company has already invested up to €100 million in the site, which will have an annual capacity of 60,000 tonnes. The plant won an ICIS Innovation Award before it even began operations.

The strategic pivot comes as Verbio’s stock endures a sharp sell-off. Shares closed Friday at €31.62, down more than 15% on the week and nearly 33% below their 52-week high. The slide has pushed the price 16% under its 50-day moving average of €37.55, while the relative strength index has dropped to 35.4, approaching oversold territory.

The trigger was a diplomatic thaw between the US and Iran, which dragged crude prices lower and squeezed margins for Verbio’s core bioethanol and biodiesel business. Cheap oil makes renewable fuels less competitive, and the market punished Verbio’s stock heavily.

Yet the operating picture tells a different story. In late May, management sharply upgraded its earnings guidance for 2025/26, forecasting EBITDA of €160 million to €180 million, up from a previous range of €100 million to €140 million. The improvement is underpinned by stronger revenue from greenhouse gas reduction quotas and tight cost controls.

Results for the first nine months of the fiscal year confirm the momentum. Verbio booked revenue of €1.34 billion. Operating profit nearly quintupled to almost €106 million, and free cash flow swung to €33 million from a negative figure a year earlier.

Regulatory tailwinds are also strengthening. Germany’s federal council recently passed a new renewable energy law that raises the national greenhouse gas quota to 17.5% by 2027, with a long-term target of 65%. Earlier projections had indicated the quota would reach only 14.5% by the same year. From 2026, the end of double counting for certain biofuels will also benefit domestic producers like Verbio by boosting real volumes.

Verbio’s balance sheet provides a solid base for the Bitterfeld expansion. Net debt stood at €127 million, and the equity ratio was nearly 60%. Despite the weekly rout, the stock is still up roughly 192% over the past twelve months.

Investors will get a full update on 24 September, when Verbio publishes its annual report. Until then, the ebb and flow of oil prices will continue to dictate the share’s near-term direction.