Valneva's Investment Thesis Hinges on Upcoming Lyme Vaccine Data

Valneva's 2025 revenue slightly exceeded estimates, but a key analyst trimmed its price target. The stock's future hinges on Phase 3 data for its Lyme disease vaccine VLA15 in H1 2026.

While Valneva's 2025 product revenue slightly exceeded analyst forecasts and its cash position came in stronger than anticipated, the investment firm First Berlin has marginally trimmed its price target for the stock. The central focus for investors now shifts decisively to the anticipated Phase 3 clinical trial results for the company's Lyme disease vaccine candidate, VLA15, expected in the first half of 2026.

A Mixed Financial Picture for 2025

In a recent research update, First Berlin reaffirmed its buy recommendation for Valneva but adjusted its price target downward from €6.80 to €6.60. The analysis highlights a nuanced financial performance for the past year.

The company reported 2025 product revenue of €157.9 million, a figure that came in slightly above the consensus analyst estimate of €155.1 million. However, this represents a decline from the €163.3 million generated in 2024. A notable detail within the report is a sharp 43.2% drop in third-party revenue to €19.2 million.

In current trading, Valneva shares are weaker, trading at €4.80, a decline of 3.22%. This movement comes despite the maintained buy rating. Over a 30-day period, however, the stock shows a significant gain of 17.46%.

Robust Cash Reserves Provide a Cushion

A clear positive from the financial update is the state of Valneva's liquidity. The company ended 2025 with a cash position of €109.7 million, substantially surpassing the projected €86 million. This stronger balance sheet provides the biotech firm with considerably greater financial flexibility as it advances its pipeline.

Looking ahead, management has provided 2026 product revenue guidance in a range of €145 million to €160 million. This bandwidth suggests visibility into future earnings, albeit with acknowledged uncertainties.

All Eyes on the VLA15 Catalyst

According to analyst reasoning, the primary future value driver for Valneva remains its Lyme borreliosis vaccine candidate, VLA15, currently in clinical development. First Berlin anticipates the critical Phase 3 data readout in the first half of 2026, with a deadline by the end of June. Should the data support regulatory approval, the analysts project a potential market launch in the autumn of 2027.

The research note underscores a growing medical need for such a vaccine, citing the expanding geographical range of ticks—a trend exacerbated by forest loss and rising global temperatures—which in turn elevates the risk of Lyme disease infections.

The investment timeline is clear: the Phase 3 results for VLA15, expected by June 30, 2026, are set to be the dominant factor influencing the stock's valuation and price target discussions, far outweighing the impact of the minor reduction to the €6.60 price target.