Ubtech Robotics: Analyst Revisions Signal Confidence Despite Stock Rout and Unitree Challenge

Analysts lift Ubtech's 2026 revenue 27% and halve loss forecasts, but shares slide 32% from peak as Unitree Robotics' IPO and rising competition weigh on sentiment.

The divergence between what the market sees and what analysts are projecting for Ubtech Robotics has rarely been starker. While the Hong Kong-listed shares have shed around 21% since the start of the year and trade at 11.41 euros in Germany — more than 32% below their 52-week peak — eight analysts have just slashed their loss forecasts and lifted revenue estimates by 27% for fiscal 2026.

The updated consensus now calls for sales of 3.69 billion Chinese yuan, up sharply from the prior 2.92 billion yuan. The expected loss per share has been cut in half to 0.665 yuan, signaling that the path to profitability is narrowing. For 2028, the sell-side predicts a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan, implying average annual earnings growth of 87% — a figure that underscores just how much faith the Street is placing in Ubtech’s scaling strategy.

Those projections rest on a solid base. In fiscal 2025, revenue jumped 53.3% to 2.001 billion yuan, the gross margin improved from 28.7% to 37.7%, and the net loss shrank 31.9% to 790 million yuan. Management has guided for an even wider margin of 40% to 43% in the current year, supported by an order backlog of roughly 1.4 billion yuan and an ambitious target of 10,000 humanoid robot deliveries in 2026.

Yet the stock is under pressure from a pair of headwinds: the explosive growth of China’s humanoid sector is luring rivals into the fray, and the upcoming initial public offering of competitor Unitree Robotics is weighing on sentiment. Unitree is set to list on Shanghai’s STAR Market in early June after slashing its valuation expectations. Its adjusted net profit slumped 52.55% in the first quarter, raising questions about the sector’s near-term pricing power.

Ubtech has tried to differentiate itself with premium industrial applications, while Unitree sells lower-cost consumer models like the G1. The median price-to-earnings multiple for Asian robotics stocks currently stands at 22, a 21% discount to US peers, and the IPO is expected to serve as a valuation benchmark for the entire sub-sector.

Operationally, the company continues to rack up milestones. On May 28, South Korea’s Polaris AI deepened its collaboration with Ubtech, completing joint training sessions on the Walker S2 humanoid. Polaris holds distribution rights for the commercial platform in South Korea and plans to deploy the robots across its manufacturing subsidiaries Polaris Uno, Polaris Sewon, and Polaris AI Pharma, targeting the industrial, logistics, and service sectors.

At the same time, Ubtech showcased its Walker C1 at the Chain Expo 2026, a full-sized humanoid capable of dancing waltz and ballet routines alongside human performers. The robot, designed for hotels, exhibition halls, and visitor centers, runs on the newly unveiled UWORLD consumer brand, which founder Zhou Jian introduced in May for household and companion robotics.

Japan Airlines is also running a two-year pilot at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, testing both Ubtech’s Walker E and Unitree’s G1 for ground-handling tasks, in partnership with GMO AI & Robotics. And in a separate push, Ubtech inked an agreement with Honda’s Chinese trading arm to explore deployment in industrial manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing.

Supply-chain reinforcement came from 3D-vision specialist Orbbec, which confirmed at the end of May that its optical systems and chips are deeply embedded in the production lines of leading humanoid manufacturers, with Ubtech as a primary customer. The collaboration highlights Ubtech’s push into “Physical AI,” where high-end sensing is a critical differentiator.

The next catalyst will be the half-year results due at the end of August. In the meantime, Ubtech’s annual general meeting on May 7 approved a buyback mandate for up to 10% of its H-shares for cancellation. Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish — twelve analysts have buy ratings and none recommend selling, with a consensus price target equivalent to 159.13 Hong Kong dollars, suggesting significant upside from current levels if the operational turnaround stays on track.