TUI Shields Existing Bookings From Fuel Surcharges as Shares Languish Near Lows

TUI shields booked holidays from fuel surcharges, resumes stranded cruises, and faces stock near 52-week low amid geopolitical risks.

TUI has drawn a clear line in the sand for its customers: those who have already booked a holiday will not face any retroactive price increases, even as jet fuel costs climb and geopolitical tensions persist. The travel group is absorbing the volatile fuel expenses itself, a move that provides certainty for travellers but places the burden squarely on the company’s margins.

While the legal framework would have allowed for surcharges under certain conditions, TUI has opted to shield its existing client base from that risk. The strategy offers peace of mind for holidaymakers, but the calculus shifts when it comes to new business. Market observers anticipate higher prices in future booking waves as the group works to protect its margins in the “Markets & Airlines” division. Although fuel costs for summer 2026 are largely hedged, the longer-term outlook for expensive kerosene remains a persistent risk.

Cruise Ships Break Free, but Winter Plans Are Redrawn

The operational picture is improving on the cruise side, albeit with lasting scars. After being stranded in the Persian Gulf for over two months, “Mein Schiff 4” and “Mein Schiff 5” are finally heading back to Europe. The vessels seized a narrow window when Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, transiting the chokepoint alongside the “MSC Euribia” in close coordination with authorities — without passengers on board and under significant threat. Rather than risk the Red Sea and Suez Canal, the ships are taking the long route around southern Africa, with a stop in Cape Town to bring the full crew back on board.

“Mein Schiff 5” is scheduled to resume guest operations on 15 May in Heraklion, Crete, with “Mein Schiff 4” following two days later in Trieste. TUI Cruises had been forced to cancel all cruises from early March through mid-May 2026 without replacement.

The return does not resolve every headache. For the winter 2026/27 season, TUI Cruises is overhauling its programme in response to the ongoing instability in the Middle East. Both “Mein Schiff 5” and the new vessel “Mein Schiff Flow” are being redeployed from the Arabian Gulf to routes in Europe and the Canary Islands. The consequence for “Mein Schiff Flow” is stark: all planned cruises from 4 October 2026 to 1 May 2027 have been cancelled.

Shares Test Lows as Analysts Hold the Line

The stock market has not been kind. TUI shares are trading at €6.23, roughly 30% below their level at the start of the year and just a whisker above the 52-week low of €6.15. The relative strength index sits at 18, a technically deeply oversold reading that suggests the selling may have been overdone.

Some market participants believe most of the bad news is already priced in. The price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 is estimated at a low 5.4. Several investment banks have trimmed their price targets following the profit warning but have stuck with buy recommendations. Barclays lowered its target to €9 (“Overweight”), JPMorgan to €12.50, and Deutsche Bank to €10.50. The average analyst target stands at €9.83 — representing more than 50% upside from current levels.

The Iran conflict alone cost the group roughly €40 million in March. All eyes are now on the half-year report due 13 May, where investors will be looking for details on western Mediterranean capacity, the operating margin in the flight business, and crucially, whether the original profit guidance remains intact despite the headwinds. Updated booking data for the summer season and confirmation that the freed cruise fleet is stabilising the segment will also be under the microscope.