TUI Shares Lag as Sector Rival Carnival Posts Strong Results

TUI shares fall 25% YTD, defying sector recovery and Carnival's profit. Analysts see upside to €10.58 as Q1 loss narrows. Key H1 results due May 2026.

The travel and tourism group TUI continues to face significant selling pressure, with its share price declining despite clear signs of a fundamental recovery within the cruise industry. This weakness stands in stark contrast to the positive performance reported by its US-based competitor, Carnival.

Persistent Share Price Weakness Defies Sector Trend

TUI's equity extended its losses at the end of the week, shedding just over two percent to trade at €6.66. Since the start of the year, the stock has depreciated by a substantial 25.39 percent. This ongoing downtrend is notable given the concurrent positive news from the sector. Carnival, a key rival, reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $0.20 per share, a marked improvement from a loss of $0.06 per share in the prior-year period. The operational rebound evident across the industry is currently failing to be reflected in TUI's market valuation.

Fundamental Metrics Show Improvement

From a business fundamentals perspective, TUI's recent figures point in a more positive direction. For the first quarter of its current fiscal year, the company maintained stable revenue of €4.86 billion and managed to reduce its loss per share from €0.17 to €0.09. This progress has not gone unnoticed by analysts, whose outlook remains more optimistic than the current market sentiment suggests. Expert estimates imply a significant potential upside from the present trading level.

Key analyst projections include:
* An average price target of €10.58
* An expected earnings per share of €1.39 for the 2026 fiscal year
* An estimated dividend of €0.228 for 2026, up from €0.10 the previous year

The upcoming report on May 13, 2026, covering the first half of the financial year, will be a critical test. These results must demonstrate that the positive trend seen among competitors can be translated into tangible profits for the Hannover-based group. For now, the share price maintains a buffer zone of nearly 16 percent above its 52-week low of €5.75, providing some technical support.