TUI’s Two Faces: Cruise Unit Sails Ahead as Parent’s Profit Warning Bites

TUI's cruise division gets a positive outlook and revenue boost, but the parent company struggles with a profit warning, falling bookings, and a battered share price near its 52-week low.

The travel giant TUI is living a tale of two businesses right now. Its cruise division is riding a wave of expansion and analyst praise, while the parent company is nursing a battered share price and a slashed profit forecast. The disconnect between the two couldn’t be starker.

On the operational front, TUI Cruises has navigated a tricky geopolitical obstacle. The “Mein Schiff 4” and “Mein Schiff 5” finally cleared the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, having been stuck in Abu Dhabi and Doha since late February due to the Iran conflict. The vessels slipped through in tight formation with other ships and are now steaming toward Cape Town. Two Mediterranean sailings that were initially scrapped for mid-May are back on the schedule.

That operational headache hasn’t dimmed enthusiasm for the cruise business. S&P Global Ratings has lifted its outlook on TUI Cruises from “stable” to “positive,” while holding the long-term rating at “BB-.” The agency sees revenue hitting EUR 2.85 billion this fiscal year, with operating profit around EUR 1 billion. A big catalyst is the “Mein Schiff Flow,” a vessel for nearly 4,000 passengers slated for delivery in June 2026. That single ship will boost fleet capacity by 7%, and TUI Cruises has locked in long-term fuel and currency hedges to underwrite the expansion.

But flip to the parent company, and the picture turns grim. TUI’s stock slipped to EUR 6.26 on Monday, leaving it down nearly 30% since the start of the year and hovering just above its 52-week low of EUR 6.08. The technical picture is deeply oversold.

The sell-off accelerated late April when management issued a profit warning. The board now targets adjusted operating profit of EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 1.4 billion for 2026, a wide range that replaces the earlier floor of EUR 1.25 billion. Revenue guidance has been pulled entirely. The Middle East conflict is hitting from two sides: destinations like Turkey and Egypt are falling out of favor, and jet fuel costs are climbing. Booked summer revenues in the Markets & Airline segment are running 7% below last year.

The near-term outlook hinges on two unknowns: whether summer bookings pick up in the coming weeks and whether fuel prices stabilize. TUI is expected to release more detailed booking data shortly. For the cruise unit, S&P has tied any actual rating upgrade in the next 12 months to a smooth integration of the “Mein Schiff Flow.” For the parent, the summer season will determine whether the stock can find a floor — and whether the gap between the cruise jewel and the struggling core can begin to close.