TUI’s Summer Season Under Fire as Iran Crisis Wrecks Bookings and Forces a Profit Warning

TUI slashes profit guidance as Middle East conflict, Caribbean hurricane, and cruise disruptions cause a €40M monthly hit; shares near 52-week low.

TUI’s recovery narrative has taken a savage turn. The tour operator, which only recently restored its dividend and cleared its balance sheet of pandemic-era debt, is now grappling with a multi-front crisis that has wiped nearly a third off its share price since January. The stock slipped again in early trading on Wednesday to €6.27, hovering dangerously close to its 52-week low of €6.15.

The trigger is the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Barclays and Deutsche Bank analysts have flagged a marked pullback in bookings for Turkey, Cyprus, and Egypt — destinations that were once pillars of TUI’s summer programme. The result is stark: summer 2026 booked revenues are running seven percent behind last year’s pace. A hurricane in the Caribbean has compounded the shortfall, pushing the shortfall even wider.

A 40 Million Euro Monthly Hit

The financial damage is already crystallising. March alone cost TUI roughly €40 million, driven by repatriation flights, operational disruptions, and the immobilisation of cruise ships trapped in Gulf ports for more than 50 days. The most dramatic episode unfolded on April 19, when Iran briefly opened the Strait of Hormuz. Three vessels — TUI’s Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5, alongside the MSC Euribia — sailed through in a convoy. No sooner had they cleared the chokepoint than Tehran shut it again. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired on at least one ship; a strike was reported near Mein Schiff 4, though damage was avoided. Both TUI ships are now back on schedule, with Mein Schiff 5 departing Heraklion on May 15 and Mein Schiff 4 sailing from Trieste on May 17.

Management has responded by slashing its full-year profit guidance. Instead of the 7 to 10 percent growth originally forecast, TUI now expects adjusted EBIT of between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion. The revenue outlook has been suspended entirely until conditions stabilise.

Demand Shifts West, but Timing Turns Toxic

There is a silver lining — of sorts. Customers are pivoting to the western Mediterranean, with Spain, Portugal, and the Atlantic coast of North Africa seeing stronger demand. But the booking pattern has become increasingly last-minute, wreaking havoc on TUI’s capacity planning. The removal of kerosene surcharges could give the May and June late-booking season a further lift, though the overall picture remains fragile.

On the cost side, TUI has hedged 83 percent of its kerosene needs for the summer and locked in over 80 percent of energy costs for the cruise division for the full year. That provides some buffer, but the second quarter still tells a stark story. TUI expects adjusted EBIT of between €5 million and €25 million, a dramatic improvement from the €207 million loss in the same period last year — but far below what the market had anticipated before the crisis erupted.

Chartists Eye a Bullish Harami

Technicians are watching the share price closely. After a brutal sell-off, a “bullish harami” pattern has emerged — a small green candle forming within the trading range of the previous day’s large red candle. It is a classic signal that selling pressure may be exhausting, and some traders are betting on a short-term consolidation.

The stock is now testing the critical support zone at €6.20. A decisive break below that level would open the door to a retest of the 52-week trough at €6.15. If the support holds, the deeply oversold conditions — underscored by an extremely low RSI reading — could fuel a technical rebound.

Balance Sheet Strength Offers a Cushion

TUI’s financial position is far healthier than during the pandemic. Last November, the company repaid its final convertible bonds, slashing gross debt and interest costs. Shareholders saw the benefit at February’s annual general meeting, when a €0.10 per share dividend was reinstated for the first time since Covid. That financial breathing room gives management more flexibility to absorb operational shocks in a volatile environment.

All eyes are now on May 13, when TUI releases its second-quarter results. The numbers will reveal whether the shift to western Mediterranean bookings can stabilise the summer programme — or whether the damage runs deeper than the market has priced in.