TUI’s Summer Season in the Balance as Bookings Slide and Shares Test Lows

TUI shares slump 29% YTD after Iran crisis costs €40M in March, forcing EBIT forecast cut. Analysts see 60% upside despite summer bookings dip.

The rescue mission in the Persian Gulf may have succeeded, but the damage to TUI’s bottom line is already done. Two of the travel group’s cruise ships safely navigated the Strait of Hormuz and are now heading for Europe, yet the relief at that outcome has failed to lift the stock. Shares closed at €6.34 on Thursday, barely above their 52-week low of €6.15, and have now shed roughly 29% since the start of the year.

The Iran conflict has carved a deep hole in the company’s finances. March alone cost TUI around €40 million to repatriate stranded guests, forcing management to slash its full-year EBIT forecast to between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion. The impact is also rippling through the summer season, with booked revenues running 7% below last year’s level. Holidaymakers are steering clear of the eastern Mediterranean, shunning destinations like Turkey and Egypt due to their proximity to the conflict zone, and instead shifting bookings toward Spain and Portugal.

Amid the gloom, one bright spot has emerged. S&P Global Ratings upgraded its outlook for TUI Cruises to “positive,” citing the company’s success in integrating new ship capacity into the market. To hedge against further disruption, TUI has already locked in most of its kerosene requirements for the summer. Analysts, too, are sticking with the stock despite the profit warning. Deutsche Bank trimmed its price target to €10.50 but kept a “buy” rating, while JPMorgan cut its target to €12.50 and maintained an “overweight” stance. The average analyst target now stands at €10.18, implying roughly 60% upside from current levels — a gap that reflects either deep value or deep skepticism about the consensus view.

On the charts, the technical picture looks bruised. The relative strength index sits at 24, deep in oversold territory, and the share price is trading more than 20% below its 200-day moving average. A recent recovery attempt fizzled at key resistance levels. Yet chartists have spotted a “piercing pattern” that could signal a potential reversal.

The next major catalyst comes on May 13, when TUI releases its full half-year report. Management expects a modest operational improvement in the second quarter despite the March headwinds, and the numbers will show whether rebookings to the western Mediterranean can offset the losses from the Middle East.

Beyond the immediate crisis, TUI is pressing ahead with a digital overhaul of its retail network. At its annual partner conference in Albania on April 29, distribution chief Ilka Lauenroth unveiled plans for a new interface for the “Iris Plus” booking system, due by the end of 2026, aimed at simplifying combined bookings. The update follows complaints from travel agents about the system’s complexity. That matters because brick-and-mortar and mobile consultants still generate more than half of total revenue, with average transaction values well above those of purely digital bookings.

The technology push is part of a broader ambition to transform TUI into a global, curated marketplace for travel experiences, blending its own airline capacity with third-party products. One persistent headache: promotional codes and coupons. Customers love them, but travel agents often avoid them because they clash with commission structures and workflows. Management is working on technical fixes.

Summer 2026 also brought some encouraging signals from TUI’s policy lounge in late April, with river cruises showing particular strength and prompting plans for capacity expansion. For now, though, the market’s focus remains fixed on the summer ahead — and whether the company can navigate the geopolitical storm without further damage.