TUI’s Summer Bookings Hit 7.9 Million as Cruise Launch and Fuel Hedging Bolster Cautious EBIT Outlook

TUI enters peak summer with 7.9 million bookings, signaling renewed travel demand after a rocky spring. Cost hedging and cruise strength support as EBIT guidance hinges on booking velocity.

TUI enters the peak summer season with 7.9 million bookings already secured, the company confirmed, signalling that the consumer pullback seen during a rocky spring has given way to renewed travel demand. The rebound has been most pronounced in eastern Mediterranean destinations such as Greece, Turkey and Cyprus, with Greece, Turkey, Spain, Italy and Croatia leading the pack overall. Cyprus and Egypt are also showing strong momentum.

The uptick in bookings comes after a costly first half. TUI spent roughly €40 million repatriating some 10,000 guests from conflict-affected regions, a direct hit from the Middle East tensions that also forced the group to trim its full-year profit guidance. Management now sees adjusted EBIT landing in a range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion at constant currencies, with the final outcome hinging on booking velocity in the coming weeks.

Progress toward a ceasefire in the Iran conflict has provided some relief. The stock has rallied almost 10% over the past 30 days, partly on that geopolitical thaw, and the 50-day moving average at €6.81 now sits comfortably below the current share price of €7.16, keeping the medium-term uptrend intact. On Friday, however, the shares slipped nearly 3%, with analysts attributing the move to profit-taking after a strong month.

On the operational front, TUI has locked in cost certainty on multiple fronts. The group’s commission model for travel agents remains unchanged from last year: a base rate of 7.5% on annual turnover up to €80,000, rising to 10% above that threshold. Franchise partners can reach 16% through omnichannel and product-mix incentives. The move to simplify the tier structure from 21 to 12 steps last year was widely welcomed by agents, and TUI’s distribution chief Ilka Lauenroth has emphasised that stability is key in the current “demanding market environment”.

Fuel costs are also well contained. As of May 3, 2026, TUI had hedged 83% of its kerosene requirements for the summer season, and 62% for the coming winter. That buffer insulates the bottom line from volatile oil prices at a time when margins are under scrutiny.

The cruise business offers another pillar of support. The segment posted 93% occupancy in the first half, and this month TUI is launching “Mein Schiff Flow”, a new vessel that enters service at a time when high-margin cruise earnings are increasingly important to the group’s overall profitability.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reported a stake of 5.41% in TUI as of June 5, largely held through derivatives including call and put options and equity swaps. That position subsequently dropped to 4.18%, but the filings are regulatory obligations under German securities law rather than a strategic shift.

All eyes now turn to August 12, when TUI publishes its third-quarter results. The summer season’s booking trajectory over the next several weeks will determine whether the group lands toward the top or bottom of its EBIT corridor — and whether investors’ renewed optimism is justified.