TUI's RSI Flashes Oversold as Investors Pivot to May 13 Interim Report

TUI shares plunge 27% YTD after profit warning, trading 19% below 200-day MA. Oversold RSI of 27.3 and key €6.40 support level in focus ahead of May 13 half-year results.

The sell-off in TUI shares has accelerated, leaving the stock technically oversold and trading nearly a fifth below its 200-day moving average. But the next catalyst for a potential reversal comes on May 13, when the travel group releases its half-year results.

The stock closed Friday at €6.49, roughly 19 percent beneath its 200-day average of €8.00. The relative strength index has dropped to 27.3, deep in oversold territory. Yet technicians caution that this alone offers no guarantee of a bounce — the €6.40 level on a closing basis is being watched as a potential first sign of stabilization. Below that, the 52-week low of €6.15 looms as the next meaningful floor.

The shares have shed roughly 27 percent since the start of the year, with a 14 percent decline in the past seven days alone. The trigger was late April's profit warning, when TUI slashed its full-year guidance, citing the impact of the Middle East conflict on summer bookings.

Profit Warning and the Booking Gap

TUI now expects adjusted EBIT for fiscal 2026 of between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion, down from €1.413 billion last year. At the bottom end of that range, that would represent an outright decline. The company has temporarily suspended its revenue forecast altogether.

The problem is squarely on the demand side. Booked revenue for summer 2026 was running 7 percent below last year's level, and hotel occupancy in the second half is also trailing. Customers are booking later and more cautiously. The conflict cost TUI roughly €40 million in March alone, covering repatriation flights and operational disruptions.

Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke noted that the profit warning has nothing to do with fuel costs — TUI has hedged 83 percent of its kerosene needs for the summer season. The issue is purely about demand.

Eastern Mediterranean Exodus Reshapes Capacity

The booking weakness is concentrated in the eastern Mediterranean. Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt are seeing the sharpest declines, as travelers shift toward Spain, Portugal and the Atlantic coast of North Africa. TUI is working to reallocate capacity, renegotiate hotel contracts and adjust flight schedules, but the process is costly and time-consuming. The company is betting that its "Markets + Airline" segment can absorb some of the regional swing, but a full offset remains elusive.

There is at least one operational bright spot. TUI Cruises' Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 have left the Persian Gulf, where they were caught up in the geopolitical turmoil. The ships had been part of the costly March repatriation effort that saw TUI bring home roughly 10,000 guests and 1,500 crew members. Now, Mein Schiff 5 is scheduled to resume Mediterranean sailings from Heraklion on May 15, with Mein Schiff 4 following from Trieste two days later. The return to regular routes removes at least one operational uncertainty.

The May 13 Pivot

Despite the headwinds, TUI expects a modest improvement in second-quarter adjusted EBIT, forecasting a gain of between €5 million and €25 million versus the prior-year period — even after accounting for the €40 million March charge.

The half-year report on May 13 will be the market's first chance to assess whether the booking weakness is stabilizing. If the data show the pace of cancellations and delays is easing, that could lay the groundwork for a recovery before the peak summer season. If not, the upper end of the €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion EBIT range — which depends on a stabilization in eastern Mediterranean demand by mid-summer — will look increasingly out of reach.

For now, the stock is pricing in a worst-case scenario. The question is whether the numbers on May 13 will justify that pessimism — or begin to reverse it.