TUI’s Oversold Signal Blinks as Analysts Hold the Line Despite Profit Cut

TUI cuts 2026 guidance, suspends revenue forecast after €40M Iran hit, but Barclays, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank maintain buy ratings with consensus target at €9.83.

The Iran conflict has carved a €40 million hole in TUI’s first-quarter results, forcing management to slash its full-year guidance and suspend its revenue forecast. Yet beneath the surface of a stock trading near its 52-week low, a chorus of analysts is refusing to abandon ship.

Shares in the travel giant have shed roughly 31% since the start of the year, hovering at €6.17 — just pennies above the €6.15 trough. The relative strength index has plunged to 22, deep into oversold territory. A triple-top formation around €9.50 triggered the current downtrend, and a recent recovery attempt stalled at the €7.50 resistance level, which now stands as the next hurdle for any rebound.

Barclays Joins the Bull Camp

Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg trimmed his price target from €10.50 to €9.00 but kept an "Overweight" rating, citing roughly 40% upside from current levels. He noted that TUI beat expectations in the second quarter but was forced to lower its annual outlook due to the Iran uncertainty. Lobbenberg revised down his operating profit estimate for the current year while leaving his 2027 and 2028 forecasts largely unchanged.

The move follows similar actions from JPMorgan, which cut its target to €12.50, and Deutsche Bank, which lowered its to €10.50 — both maintaining buy-equivalent ratings. The consensus price target now sits at €9.83, a chasm above the current share price.

The Numbers Behind the Warning

On April 22, TUI slashed its 2026 earnings guidance, now forecasting adjusted EBIT between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion. Previously, the group had targeted a 7% to 10% increase over the prior year. The revenue forecast has been suspended entirely until the geopolitical situation stabilizes.

The culprit: a sudden shift in consumer behavior. Customers are booking later and more cautiously, with summer 2026 booked revenue in the Markets & Airline segment running 7% below last year. Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt are bearing the brunt of the slowdown as demand pivots toward the western Mediterranean. Residual effects from a hurricane in the Caribbean have compounded the pressure.

Ships Escape, But the Damage Is Done

The most visible manifestation of the crisis played out at sea. The "Mein Schiff 4" and "Mein Schiff 5" were stranded for weeks in Abu Dhabi and Doha before finally clearing the Persian Gulf on April 19. They are scheduled to resume their Mediterranean itineraries from mid-May. TUI had to repatriate roughly 10,000 guests in March, including about 5,000 cruise passengers from the two vessels. The Iran-related costs for that month alone came to €40 million.

The rest of the cruise business is holding steady, but the core package holiday operation is feeling the strain.

A Glimmer in Q2

Despite the headwinds, the second quarter is shaping up less badly than feared. TUI expects adjusted EBIT of between €5 million and €25 million for the period, compared with a loss of €207 million in the same quarter last year. The wide range underscores the unpredictability of the current environment.

On costs, the group has hedged 83% of its kerosene needs for summer 2026, 62% for winter 2026/27, and over 80% of energy costs for the current year in the cruise division.

The May 13 Reckoning

All eyes are now on May 13, when TUI will release its full second-quarter results. The market will be listening for two things: whether management can defend the revised annual targets, and whether the booking pipeline for the peak summer season looks any healthier than the current summer numbers suggest. For a stock trading at oversold levels with a chorus of analysts still calling it a buy, the answer could determine whether the recovery begins — or whether the selling has further to run.