TUI Pioneers AI Booking Channels as Geopolitical Shocks Force Revenue Forecast Suspension

TUI becomes first tour operator to sell holidays inside ChatGPT, but shares fall 27% amid geopolitical costs and a cautious market outlook.

TUI has taken the unusual step of embedding its hotel and experience inventory directly inside ChatGPT, making the travel giant one of the first tour operators to turn a generative?AI assistant into a fully fledged sales channel. The May 2026 integration lets users discover and book TUI holidays without leaving the ChatGPT app, a move chief executive Sebastian Ebel frames as part of a broader shift: artificial intelligence is no longer a toolkit at TUI but a way of working, one aimed at capturing customers before they even reach a traditional booking platform.

The rollout follows a gradual build?out. In August 2023, TUI piloted ChatGPT inside its own UK app, offering excursion recommendations and destination Q&As. A November 2025 partnership with the planning platform Mindtrip allowed natural?language itineraries that could be turned into TUI bookings. The latest step goes further by plugging directly into the ChatGPT ecosystem, with additional large?language?model tie?ups already in preparation.

Investors have so far greeted the innovation with caution. TUI’s shares are trading at around €6.50, a 27% slide since the start of the year and almost a third below the 52?week high of €9.41. The stock sits nearly 18% below its 200?day moving average, a technical signal that the downtrend remains intact.

The market’s wariness reflects a first?half performance that, while technically a record, came with a thicket of external costs. The adjusted EBIT for the six months to March 2026 improved by €45 million to -€111 million, marking the fourteenth consecutive quarter of year?on?year operating profit growth. The second quarter alone narrowed its adjusted loss from -€206.8 million to -€188 million despite heavy headwinds. The Iran conflict carved a €40 million hole in the earnings line, while Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica added another €5 million in damage and disruption.

Those geopolitical and weather blows are now reshaping the summer pipeline. Booked revenues in the Markets + Airline segment have fallen 7% below last year’s level, partly because the Iran?linked shift has pushed travellers from the eastern Mediterranean toward western destinations such as Spain and Greece. Crucially, close to half of all holidaymakers planning a summer trip have yet to book, and the window for decision?making is getting shorter. TUI has responded by deliberately trimming its total capacity — by up to 5% — to avoid discounting and protect pricing power.

The late?booking pattern has made forecasting unusually uncertain. TUI has therefore suspended its previous revenue target for the full year, saying it will wait for more stable conditions before issuing a new sales forecast. The profit guidance is more specific: management continues to target an adjusted EBIT of between €1.1 billion and €1.4 billion for the full 2026 financial year, though this is contingent on no further geopolitical escalation.

Net debt held steady at €3.0 billion as the company invests in expansion. New markets include Italy and Romania, while a revamped loyalty programme and an expansion of the river?cruise fleet are designed to deepen customer ties. The strategy carries a clear trade?off: by sacrificing near?term load factors for margin stability, TUI is betting that leaner capacity will support price levels even if last?minute demand disappoints. Whether the ChatGPT booking channel can offset the operational dent from the Iran shock will be tested when the summer booking cycle closes.