TUI Faces Twin Drag: Slow Summer Bookings and Record Passenger Grievances

TUI reports 7.9M summer bookings but 7% revenue decline in Markets + Airline due to Iran conflict, record passenger complaints, and rising costs. Stock flat amid uncertainty.

TUI’s summer season is shaping up to be a study in contrasts. The group has logged 7.9 million customer bookings for summer 2026, with more than half of seasonal capacity already sold by early May. Yet the headline figure masks a 7% year-on-year drop in booked revenue within its Markets + Airline division. The culprit, according to management, is a shift in traveller behaviour and destination preferences triggered by the Iran conflict, which has redirected demand from the Eastern Mediterranean toward the Western basin.

Compounding the revenue shortfall is a spike in passenger dissatisfaction. The independent arbitration body Schlichtungsstelle Reise und Verkehr (söp) reported over 29,400 complaints lodged against travel operators in the first half of the year — a record high. Extreme weather events and flight disruptions linked to the Gulf region conflict have fuelled customer frustration. For TUI, the operational headaches extend further: rising jet fuel costs and the rollout of the new EU border system are creating delays and adding expense.

The company has moved to lock in some predictability on the cost side. TUI has hedged 83% of its kerosene requirements for summer 2026, insulating itself from fuel price swings. Regulatory relief is also trickling through. Germany recently lowered its air travel tax, and from winter the fees for the German Travel Security Fund will halve from 0.5% to 0.25% of insurable turnover — though TUI’s management continues to push for a total exemption, arguing the fund has already fulfilled its purpose after the collapse of FTI. Separately, TUI is in talks with Corendon over operating the Dutch government’s aircraft, a deal that could save the state roughly €100 million.

On the shareholder front, the group has proposed a starter dividend of €0.10 per share for 2025, with a payout ratio of 10% to 20% of adjusted earnings per share targeted from 2026. While the dividend signals confidence, short-term stock performance hinges on whether operating earnings can reach the upper end of the new guidance range.

The equity market is taking a wait-and-see approach. TUI shares closed at €7.17, edging up 0.5% over the past seven sessions but losing around 1.5% on the day. The month-on-month recovery of 5.75% offers little comfort given the year-to-date decline of 19.7% and the stock’s persistent failure to breach the €8 resistance level. The 200-day moving average sits at €7.65, well above the current price, while a reading of 51.4 on the relative strength index leaves the shares in neutral territory. Annualised 30-day volatility of 33.69% underscores lingering uncertainty.

In the weeks ahead, the key question is whether the delayed booking pattern will translate into last-minute summer business. TUI is simultaneously reshaping itself from a traditional tour operator into an integrated leisure marketplace. Until that transformation yields more robust booking data for the peak season, the disconnect between tight cost controls and uneven demand — now amplified by a historic wave of customer complaints — will remain the dominant theme for investors.