TUI Bets on River Cruise Growth as BlackRock and D.E. Shaw Double Down on Shorts

BlackRock and D.E. Shaw increase short positions on TUI as geopolitical tensions drive fuel costs, even as the travel giant invests in two new methanol-ready river cruise ships.

TUI is sending mixed signals to the market. On one hand, the travel giant is investing millions in expanding its river cruise fleet with two new “methanol-ready” vessels. On the other, two major hedge funds — BlackRock and D.E. Shaw — have just increased their short positions against the stock. The convergence of geopolitical risk, rising fuel costs, and institutional skepticism is creating a tense backdrop for the shares.

BlackRock Advisors lifted its net short exposure from 0.61% to 0.70% of TUI’s outstanding equity, while D.E. Shaw ratcheted its own bet up from 1.80% to 1.92%. Both filings landed on the same day, and the timing aligns with fresh US airstrikes against Iran that have rattled energy markets. Brent crude for August delivery recently traded at $77.60 a barrel, down 0.55% from the prior session but still sharply above the roughly $72 level seen at the start of the week — after touching almost $80 intraday.

TUI’s in-house airline fleet makes the group particularly sensitive to kerosene costs. Though the company hedges fuel exposure, prolonged elevation in oil prices would squeeze margins in both the aviation and cruise divisions. The shorts are betting that downward pressure will persist.

Yet TUI is simultaneously ploughing capital into expansion. TUI River Cruises has ordered two new ships from Dutch builder Concordia Damen, scheduled for delivery by 2028. The vessels will be “methanol-ready,” allowing a future switch to lower-emission fuels. Each will offer 94 cabins for 188 passengers and is tailored for the British market, sailing European waterways such as the Rhine. The fleet in this segment will grow from six to ten ships. The announcement coincided with the christening of the “Aria” in Frankfurt — the largest renovated vessel in the company’s European river-cruise line-up.

The stock itself has been volatile. TUI shares last changed hands at €7.05, down 0.48% from the previous close of €7.08, having briefly dipped below the €7.00 mark earlier in the session. Over the past week the stock has lost 2.11%, and year-to-date the decline stands at 21.07%. The equity is now almost 26% below its 52-week high of €9.50, set in February.

But there are signs of resilience. From the April low of €6.11, the shares have recovered roughly 15%. On a monthly basis, the gain is 7.77%. The annualised 30-day volatility hovers around 33%, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to headline risk.

Technically, the picture is mixed. The 50-day moving average sits at €6.89 — just 2.74% below the current price — hinting at near-term support. The 200-day average of €7.65, however, remains 7.42% above the market, indicating the broader downtrend is still intact. The relative strength index stands at 47.5, a neutral reading that gives no clear directional signal.

For now, two forces will dictate the next move: the trajectory of oil prices amid Middle East tensions, and the appetite of short sellers. Should short interest climb further, the shares could face additional headwinds. A de-escalation in the region, conversely, would leave TUI with a large short base — setting the stage for a potential squeeze. Meanwhile, the river-cruise investment reflects a long-term bet that capacity growth and ESG-driven modernisation will pay off, even if the near-term macro climate remains fraught.