TSMC Puts ASML’s €370 Million Chip Machines on Ice Until 2029

TSMC postpones ASML's €370M High-NA EUV tools until 2029, but standard EUV orders surge 36% amid $38.8B backlog and political headwinds.

The world’s most advanced chipmaking tools are gathering dust on the order books — at least for now. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the planet’s largest contract chipmaker, has confirmed it will skip ASML’s cutting-edge High-NA EUV lithography systems for its upcoming A13 chip generation, pushing adoption of the €370 million machines out to 2029 at the earliest.

TSMC vice president Kevin Zhang laid out the calculus plainly: the company simply does not need the new gear yet. The economics only make sense when volume production of more advanced nodes kicks in later this decade. That timeline dashes analyst expectations that had penciled in lucrative High-NA orders for ASML in 2026 and 2027.

The news sent ASML shares sliding 4.48 percent on Tuesday to €1,172.40 in Amsterdam. The stock has since recovered slightly to trade around €1,220, though that level still reflects the sting of a key growth catalyst pushed into the distance.

The Standard Machine Surge

While the High-NA story stalls, ASML’s bread-and-butter business is humming. The Dutch lithography giant plans to build at least 60 standard EUV systems this year — a 36 percent jump over the five-year average of roughly 44 machines. For 2027, management has already set a target of 80 units.

To fuel that ramp, ASML is pouring €2.2 billion into new factories and infrastructure, a 20 percent increase from last year. The spending is backed by blockbuster orders from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which have been stuffing the order book. The backlog now stands at €38.8 billion, giving ASML unusually high revenue visibility for the coming quarters.

The company’s first-quarter results underscore the strength of the core business: revenue hit €8.8 billion, net income came in at €2.8 billion, and the gross margin landed at 53.0 percent — the top end of management’s own forecast. For the full year, ASML expects gross margins between 51 and 53 percent and revenue of €36 billion to €40 billion.

Washington’s Shadow Lengthens

Political headwinds are building alongside the commercial ones. US lawmakers are advancing the “MATCH Act,” legislation that would tighten export controls on chipmaking equipment — a direct threat to ASML’s China business. The region’s share of ASML’s revenue has already fallen to 19 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

Management is bracing for impact. The company has imposed a six-week global hiring freeze and is cutting roughly 1,700 positions in middle management. The restructuring signals that ASML sees the export-control debate as a structural shift, not a temporary hiccup.

Capital Returns Keep Flowing

Despite the near-term uncertainty, ASML is maintaining its generous capital-return program. The company bought back roughly €1.1 billion of its own shares in the first quarter under a buyback plan running through 2028. In a separate tranche, it recently repurchased nearly €80 million in stock.

Shareholders also have a dividend to look forward to. ASML will pay a final dividend of €2.70 per share on May 5, bringing the total payout for fiscal 2025 to €7.50. The ex-dividend date was April 27, which partly explains the stock’s recent softness.

The Bigger Picture

Over a 12-month horizon, ASML shares have still more than doubled, gaining roughly 99 percent. The current pullback looks modest against that backdrop. Analysts note that while the High-NA delay shifts the product mix, the structural demand for lithography capacity remains intact — driven by AI infrastructure, memory-chip expansion, and the relentless push for smaller transistors.

The real wild card isn’t technology or demand. It’s Washington. How far export restrictions reach will likely matter more for ASML’s valuation in the coming months than any single order delay or production milestone.