Triple-Leveraged Silver ETC Jumps as Jobs Data Misses Mark, Sparking Shift in Fed Rate Expectations

US jobs miss drops rate hike probability, boosting silver. WisdomTree 3x Silver ETC gains 4.85% daily but remains 44% down over 30 days.

The US labour market threw a curveball in June, and triple-leveraged silver products caught the updraft. With only 57,000 new jobs added against a consensus range of 110,000 to 115,000, the miss sent rate expectations into a tailspin. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, but the headline number was enough to rattle the bond market and give precious metals a fresh bid.

The WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged ETC rode that wave to a fourth straight winning session, closing Friday at $8.54. That marked a daily gain of 4.85 percent and a weekly advance of 15.88 percent. The underlying spot silver price settled at $62.30 an ounce, up 2.24 percent on the day and 8.93 percent for the week, breaching the psychologically important $60 level.

Fed bets reverse course

Before the release, the CME FedWatch Tool had pegged the probability of a September rate hike at 66 percent. After the number hit the wires, that probability tumbled to around 50 percent. Lower real interest rates and a softer dollar – the dollar index slipped toward 100.80 – typically boost zero-yielding assets like silver. The metal’s rally underscores just how sensitive leveraged commodity products are to shifts in monetary policy expectations.

Technical picture: rally masks deep monthly scars

The 14-day relative strength index for the ETC now sits at 36.0, dragging the product out of oversold territory but still far from neutral. The annualised 30-day volatility remains extreme at 149.68 percent, a reminder that this is not a buy-and-hold instrument. Over the past 30 days, the ETC has lost 44.42 percent of its value, and the latest bounce only recoups a fraction of that damage.

From a chart perspective, silver faces its first resistance at $63.50 an ounce, with firmer hurdles at $70.00 and $71.80. On the downside, support levels are pegged at $60.00 and $55.25.

How the levered product works

The WisdomTree ETC replicates three times the daily performance of silver futures, tracking either the Solactive Silver Commodity Futures SL Index or the NASDAQ Commodity Silver ER Index. A 1 percent daily move in the underlying index translates into roughly a 3 percent move in the ETC – in either direction. The product is fully collateralised and uses synthetic replication through swap agreements, with an annual total expense ratio of 0.99 percent. That structure explains the outsized swings: the same leverage that amplified last week’s gains also magnified the preceding rout.

Structural support beyond the rate story

Beyond the shift in Fed expectations, silver enjoys a solid fundamental tailwind. The iShares Silver Trust purchased a net 36.5 tonnes of the metal between June 30 and July 2, pushing its total holdings to 14,940 tonnes. Industrial demand from the solar sector – which accounts for roughly 15 percent of global silver consumption – continues to climb, with panel production rising 8.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The electronics industry, including 5G-related components, adds another 22 percent to the demand picture.

On the supply side, the structural deficit is widening. Analysts project a global silver shortfall of 46.3 million ounces for 2026, up from 40.3 million ounces the prior year, marking the sixth consecutive deficit year. That persistent gap provides a price floor regardless of where central bank policy points next.

Upcoming catalysts

The calendar is packed with potential triggers. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest FOMC meeting on July 8, which could offer clues on how policymakers view the softening labour market. Also on deck are the producer price index – a proxy for inflation pressures – and the ISM services index, which will provide a broader gauge of economic health. Meanwhile, oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel, fanning stagflation fears and reinforcing silver’s appeal as a hedge.

Forecast models project spot silver could rise another 6.23 percent to $66.26 by July 10, assuming the current momentum holds. For the triple-leveraged ETC, that would translate into a roughly 18.7 percent move. But as last month’s 44 percent loss demonstrates, the same multiplier works ruthlessly in the other direction.