TKMS Hiring Spree and Record Backlog Fail to Lift Shares as Canada and Germany Near Submarine and Frigate Decisions

Despite a record €20.6B order backlog and raised guidance, TKMS stock trades 25% below its high. Key catalysts: Canadian sub contract due June, German F127 frigate vote on June 24.

A sharp disconnect has opened between the operating momentum of the Kiel-based naval shipbuilder and its stock price. TKMS holds a record order backlog of €20.6 billion after scooping up €3.4 billion in new contracts during the first half of its 2025/26 financial year, yet its shares have slid 2.2% to €75.00 – well below the 50-day moving average of €81.22. The mild year-to-date gain of roughly 9% still leaves the stock trading more than 25% below its 52-week high of just under €103.

Management has responded to the strong inflow of work by raising its full-year guidance, now forecasting a "noticeable" increase in revenue and an adjusted EBIT margin that will climb past 6% in fiscal 2026. To handle the swelling project pipeline, TKMS is actively recruiting: more than 330 new hires, primarily engineers and project managers, are being sought to reinforce the headquarters in Kiel.

The biggest catalyst on the immediate horizon lies across the Atlantic. The Canadian government is set to decide by the end of June on a submarine procurement program worth around 30 billion Canadian dollars. TKMS has advanced to the final round against South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, offering its Type 212CD design. The German contingent is leaning heavily on local industrial commitments, including plans for two coastal maintenance depots and new manufacturing capacity, and has already secured letters of intent with Canadian firms such as Marmen and Seaspan. A separate cooperation agreement with Elbit Systems bolsters the technological component. Hanwha is countering with pledges of tens of thousands of jobs, while German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has personally lobbied in Ottawa for a strategic partnership.

Even if the Canadian tender goes against TKMS, a second mega-deal awaits at home. Germany’s budget committee in the Bundestag is scheduled to vote on June 24 on the new F127 air-defence frigates, a project with a total volume of €26.2 billion. TKMS is the sole remaining bidder for that programme, and a green light would secure yard capacity for years. Further out, the company is also pursuing India’s P-75I submarine project, valued at $8 billion.

The next three weeks will effectively define the utilisation of TKMS’s shipyards for a decade. A win in either Ottawa or Berlin would refocus attention on the 52-week high of €103, while a double loss would deliver a heavy blow to the long-term growth narrative. For now, the stock’s weakness underscores the pressure on management to convert a record order book and a burgeoning headcount into tangible shareholder returns. The parent company, Thyssenkrupp AG, which still holds exactly 51% of TKMS, will be watching closely.