TKMS CEO Confronts Investor Skepticism as Record Backlog Fails to Lift Stock From 24% Trough

TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard addresses investor doubts over capacity and political risks as €20B order backlog swells, with India submarine deal delayed and a Navantia partnership under consideration.

Oliver Burkhard, chief executive of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), is pushing back against a wave of doubt that has gripped investors even as the shipbuilder stacks up orders worth tens of billions of euros. The company’s backlog already stands at roughly €20 billion — ten times last year’s revenue — and two prospective submarine contracts with Canada and India could more than double that figure. Yet the share price sits at €81.00, a full 24% below the October 2025 record of €106.58, and the 30-day annualised volatility hovers near 83%.

“Of course we can deliver — otherwise we wouldn’t take on these orders,” Burkhard told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, directly addressing the capacity concerns that have dogged TKMS as it juggles multiple multibillion-euro projects. He pointed to the company’s 550,000-square-metre covered dock facility in Wismar, calling it the largest of its kind in Europe, as proof of manufacturing muscle.

But the root of the share-price slide, the CEO argued, lies less in shipyard output than in politics. He singled out the abrupt cancellation of Germany’s F126 frigate programme, a project TKMS had been working on. “Investors understandably question how reliable an order book can be when the government can intervene midway through,” Burkhard said, stressing that TKMS played no role in the delays that scuttled the programme. The move has left a lingering trust deficit between the company and the market.

To ease the load, Burkhard is exploring a tie-up with Spain’s Navantia, which he described as underutilised. A decision on the partnership is expected by the end of this year. “The Spaniards are underemployed — and we have plenty on our plate,” he noted. Separately, TKMS has forged an industrial link with German space firm Isar Aerospace, which is building a launch pad in Canada via Maritime Launch Services, creating potential synergies for the local submarine programme — though some observers flag possible conflicts of interest.

The India deal, meanwhile, has hit a snag. The government in New Delhi wants six submarines worth around €8 billion, according to Burkhard’s estimate, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz dangled the prospect of a deal during his January visit. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, after touring TKMS’s Kiel yard in April, predicted a signature within three months. But India’s financial constraints following Asia’s energy crisis have pushed that timeline into 2026. Burkhard remains adamant: “I expect the Indian order by the end of the year. We have no indication the deal won’t happen.” India, along with Singapore, is TKMS’s most important customer in Asia.

The Canadian contract, where TKMS is the preferred bidder for up to twelve submarines, is on a slower track. The final agreement is expected in the fourth quarter of 2027, with deliveries starting in 2033. Germany and Norway jointly helped secure the project against a rival bid from South Korea’s Hanwha, and Pistorius lobbied personally. The overall programme could be worth up to $43.3 billion and is projected to contribute C$86 billion to Canada’s GDP, supporting 650,000 jobs. Hanwha, after losing the bid, has now offered Morocco two KSS-III Batch-II submarines.

Over on the surface fleet, TKMS scored a clear win when the Bundestag approved the MEKO A-200 DEU frigate project on 8 July 2026, partnering with Sweden’s Saab for combat systems valued at 8.7 billion Swedish kronor. That order underscores how TKMS has become a go-to supplier in Europe’s defence build-up, muscling past rivals including Rheinmetall.

Yet the stock’s performance tells a different story from the order-book exuberance. After spiking briefly to €98 on the Canada news, the shares retreated to current levels. Deutsche Bank still sees material upside, setting a price target of €110. The market has also spawned a bonus certificate on the stock, capped at €108 with a barrier at €50, offering a gross return of 34.6% through September 2027 — a bet that the trend remains intact but volatile. With a market capitalisation of €5.45 billion, TKMS is now firmly established as a standalone defence play, but its fate over the coming quarters hinges on two milestones: a final nod from India by year-end and the Canadian signature in late 2027.