Thyssenkrupp Shares Falter as Revenue Warning Overshadows Steel-Led Earnings Rebound

Adjusted EBIT soared to €198M in Q2, driven by steel turnaround and cost cuts. Yet revenue fell 2%, net loss of €11M, and full-year sales forecast revised down to flat or -3%.

Thyssenkrupp investors have been handed a conflicting set of signals. The industrial conglomerate delivered a sharp improvement in operating profit during its fiscal second quarter, but a downgraded revenue forecast and a net loss for the period have taken the gloss off the result. The stock closed Friday at €10.55, down 1.91 percent, even as the 30-day gain remained a robust 19.64 percent.

The headline numbers released on May 12 painted a paradoxical picture. Revenue slipped to €8.38 billion, a 2 percent decline from the prior-year quarter, and the group booked a net loss of €11 million, a dramatic swing from the €167 million profit posted a year earlier. Yet beneath the surface, adjusted EBIT surged to €198 million from just €19 million in the same period of 2024.

The steel division drove much of that operational turnaround. The unit posted an adjusted EBIT of €84 million, reversing a €23 million loss a year ago. Lower raw material and energy costs, coupled with personnel restructuring effects, provided the tailwind. The steel business remains the engine of Thyssenkrupp’s profit recovery even as demand from automotive and industrial customers stays soft.

Group-wide, the APEX performance program has been the main catalyst for the earnings step-up. The initiative aims to streamline processes and cut costs, and its impact was visible across the balance sheet. The fact that the net loss narrowed sharply from the €334 million deficit recorded in the preceding quarter also suggests the company is past the worst of the restructuring drag.

But the revenue outlook has darkened. Management now expects full-year sales for 2025/2026 to be flat at best or to contract by as much as 3 percent. The previous guidance had allowed for modest growth. CFO Axel Hamann pointed to geopolitical uncertainties, including the escalation of the Iran conflict, as factors weighing on international markets. The group nevertheless reaffirmed its full-year targets for adjusted EBIT and net income, which it still sees in the range of €400 million to €800 million.

Analysts remain broadly constructive, though with a wide spread of price targets. Kepler and Citi each see the stock at €15, while Deutsche Bank has a target of €14.50. JPMorgan is closer to the current price at €11.80, and DZ Bank maintains a hold rating. The technical picture supports the bull case: the share price trades well above its 50-day moving average, suggesting the recent pullback is a correction within an intact uptrend rather than a reversal.

The contrast between Thyssenkrupp’s industrial turnaround and its hydrogen subsidiary Nucera could hardly be starker. Nucera’s net loss ballooned to €64 million from just €3 million a year earlier, while revenue collapsed 77 percent to €50 million. High costs on existing green hydrogen projects and the expiry of a pilot contract are to blame. Yet order intake hit a record €316 million since its 2023 IPO, driven by a 300-megawatt electrolyser project for Spanish energy company Moeve and a feasibility study for a 260-MW undertaking in India. The demand is there, but profitability remains elusive.

On the structural front, Thyssenkrupp Polysius, the cement and industrial solutions arm, launched a wholly owned subsidiary called Thyssenkrupp Calvion GmbH on May 1. Around 40 employees will focus on Oxyfuel technology and other CO2 reduction solutions for energy-intensive industries such as cement and lime. The initiative fits the group’s broader strategy of bundling know-how into separate entities that can be scaled more quickly.

For the share price to sustain its recovery, two things need to align. Steel must keep delivering operational improvements, and Nucera must convert its record order book into reliable margins. Until then, Thyssenkrupp remains a story of genuine earnings progress held back by stalled growth and the high cost of building the next generation of industrial technology.