Thyssenkrupp’s Two-Front War: Submarine Prize in Canada, Factory Closure in Indiana

Thyssenkrupp bids for Canada's €10B+ submarine contract while closing Indiana plant to reshape into leaner holding company

Thyssenkrupp faces a summer of pivotal deadlines on opposite sides of the Atlantic. Canada is set to award a multibillion-dollar submarine contract before the end of June, while in the American Midwest the conglomerate is pushing ahead with the closure of an automotive components plant. Both moves test the group’s ability to reshape itself into a leaner, more focused holding company.

Ottawa stuck to its timetable on Wednesday, with Prime Minister Mark Carney confirming that the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project remains on track. The tender covers up to twelve conventionally powered, ice-capable submarines. Industry estimates put the contract value at more than €10 billion, though South Korean sources have cited a figure as high as $40 billion. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems is one of two finalists, competing against a consortium of Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries. Both sides qualified in August 2025 and received formal bidding guidelines in October. First delivery is scheduled no later than 2035, with a strong emphasis on range, endurance, stealth and Arctic performance.

The political stakes are high. South Korea’s Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan highlighted the strengths of the Korean offer on May 28, as the German government throws its weight behind TKMS. The outcome will be a litmus test for the international competitiveness of Germany’s naval shipbuilding industry. For Thyssenkrupp, which holds 51% of TKMS, a win would provide a powerful validation of the decision to spin off the marine division. The remaining 49% was transferred directly to shareholders in August 2025, and TKMS has been listed on the MDAX since December 22. Its order backlog stood at €18.7 billion at the end of last year.

While the submarine drama unfolds, Thyssenkrupp is making harder-nosed decisions in its automotive operations. ThyssenKrupp Presta North America intends to shut its plant in Terre Haute, Indiana, by March 31, 2027, affecting about 230 employees. Chassis-related work will be consolidated in Hamilton, Ohio. The company cites shifting market and customer requirements, but the message is deliberately blunt: the Automotive Technology division needs to become leaner, clearer and more profitable to be ready for a potential standalone listing.

The factory closure is part of a broader cost-cutting drive. Around 1,800 positions are set to be cut across the automotive business, with expected savings of more than €150 million. These measures fall under the ACES 2030 plan, which aims to turn Thyssenkrupp into a financial holding company holding majority stakes in independently managed units. For equity investors, the logic is that the sum of the parts becomes easier to value once each segment is de-layered.

Financially, the group is in a position that buys it time but not confidence. As of March 31, 2026, Thyssenkrupp reported equity of €10.3 billion, an equity ratio of 36%, and net cash of €2.8 billion. Yet the outlook for the current fiscal year includes a net loss between €400 million and €800 million. On an adjusted operating basis, management targets €500 million to €900 million, while revenue is expected to fall by as much as 3%. Delays in revenue recognition at Decarbon Technologies and a shifting product mix at Steel Europe are among the headwinds.

The stock has nonetheless been rallying. Thyssenkrupp shares closed Thursday at €11.54, up 20.94% over the past 30 days and 37.19% over twelve months. The price sits 24.01% above its 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index at 62.2 suggests no extreme overheating yet. In the most recent session, the share price edged to €11.86, a gain of 2.82%, and has advanced 22.62% since the start of the year. However, the market has already priced in considerable progress on restructuring. Should the automotive margin improvements fail to materialise in a timely manner or the submarine decision go the other way, the rally could quickly face a reality check.

A further potential catalyst looms in the second half of 2026: an initial public offering of TK Elevator, with a mooted valuation of up to €25 billion. That would give Thyssenkrupp additional firepower to fund its transformation. For now, however, the immediate focus is on Ottawa’s summer decision and the dust settling in Terre Haute. Both will say a great deal about whether Thyssenkrupp’s break-up blueprint can deliver on its promise.