Thyssenkrupp’s Two-Front War: Naval Billions vs. Steel’s Pension Burden

Thyssenkrupp's naval division wins a landmark frigate contract, lifting price targets, while its steel unit struggles with €2.4B pension liabilities in a complex sale.

Thyssenkrupp is living a tale of two businesses. While its naval division secures a landmark frigate contract that has analysts raising price targets, the steel unit remains mired in a complex sale process weighed down by €2.4 billion in pension liabilities. The stock, trading at €9.04, has clawed back roughly 26% from its 52-week low in late March but still sits nearly 10% in the red year-to-date.

Deutsche Bank Lifts TKMS Target on F-128 Order

The German navy’s F-128 frigate award has prompted Deutsche Bank to increase its price target for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems from €99 to €110, reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The order is now feeding more heavily into earnings estimates. Revenue from the marine division is projected to climb to approximately €2.86 billion by 2028, up from the current €2.17 billion.

A separate submarine program in Canada adds further momentum. Ottawa expects a revised bid by April 29, with a potential contract volume of around €37 billion. Jefferies analyst Tommaso Castello, who reiterated a “Buy” rating with a €13.00 target on April 27, pointed to “hidden value” within the broader group, including the remaining stake in the elevator business and the possibility of spinning off Materials Services.

Chart Signal Meets Caution

On Monday, the stock briefly crossed above its 200-day moving average of €9.04 — a technical signal that chart watchers often interpret as a potential trend shift. However, a sustained bullish breakout would require clearing the 100-day line at roughly €9.66. The relative strength index of 33 indicates the shares are technically in oversold territory, though the quiet period ahead of May 12 earnings limits near-term catalysts.

Steel Sale: No Fire Sale

CEO Miguel López has drawn a firm line: the steel division will not be “given away.” Negotiations with Indian suitor Jindal Steel International continue, but the €2.4 billion pension liability remains a major sticking point. The group’s bargaining position has improved thanks to a restructuring labor agreement and new EU steel safeguard tariffs set to take effect in July 2026.

Thyssenkrupp plans to sell its 50% stake in Hüttenwerke Krupp-Mannesmann to Salzgitter AG by June 1, 2026, though management has ruled out a full merger with Salzgitter. Meanwhile, Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel will halt production at its Isbergues, France, site from June to September 2026, as Asian imports now account for over 50% of the EU market.

Key Dates Ahead

Two events could move the stock in the near term. April 29 brings an expected status update on the Canadian submarine bid, with potential volatility depending on the outcome. May 12 marks the release of the second-quarter 2025/2026 interim report, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of €0.04. The market is targeting an adjusted EBIT margin of roughly 6% for the current fiscal year. Until then, management remains in the standard quiet period, leaving investors to weigh the naval windfall against the steel unit’s unresolved future.