Thyssenkrupp's Stock Caught Between a Tariff Shield and a €25 Billion Exit

EU slashes steel import quotas, boosting shares, but Thyssenkrupp's immediate future hinges on the multi-billion euro disposal of its TK Elevator stake.

Thyssenkrupp shares have been lifted by a major policy shift from Brussels, yet the industrial conglomerate’s fate is being decided far from the halls of the EU. While new steel import rules promise structural relief, the company’s immediate financial future hinges on a high-stakes, multi-billion euro disposal of its former elevator unit.

European Union officials reached a landmark agreement in mid-April, fundamentally rewriting the rulebook for steel imports. The deal slashes the annual duty-free import quota to 18.3 million tonnes, a dramatic 47 percent reduction from previous levels. Any imports exceeding this new cap will face a punitive tariff of 50 percent, double the previous rate. These measures, set to formally take effect after June 30, 2026, are designed to replace expiring WTO safeguards and include stricter "melted and poured" origin rules to prevent circumvention.

The market’s reaction was swift. Thyssenkrupp’s stock gained nearly four percent on the news, part of a broader sector rally that saw peers like Salzgitter jump six percent. This boost contributes to a recovery from a 52-week low of €7.15 in late March, with the share price climbing roughly 21 percent to €8.67, though it remains below the 200-day moving average of €9.92.

This regulatory tailwind arrives not a moment too soon for Thyssenkrupp’s beleaguered steel operations. The division has been under severe pressure from cheap imports, forcing the company to announce a complete four-month production halt at its Isbergues plant in France starting in June, putting approximately 1,200 jobs at risk. The broader European steel sector is operating at just 65 percent of capacity and has shed around 100,000 jobs since 2008.

Yet, the potential lifeline from EU tariffs is a longer-term story. The more pressing catalyst for the stock is the high-stakes battle over TK Elevator. Thyssenkrupp retains a 16.2 percent stake in the former subsidiary, and its main owners are targeting a blockbuster IPO in the second half of 2026 with a valuation of up to €25 billion. Operationally, TK Elevator supports that figure, having posted revenue of €9.2 billion with a margin of 14.8 percent.

However, a competing offer is on the table. Finnish rival Kone is positioning itself with a cash-and-stock proposal to acquire the business, a move that would create the world's largest elevator manufacturer. Market volatility has reportedly made financial owners Cinven and Advent more receptive to a direct sale. Any deal with Kone would face significant antitrust scrutiny and has already prompted rival Schindler to threaten legal action.

Beyond steel and elevators, Thyssenkrupp is advancing another major portfolio move. The group is preparing the independence of its Materials Services trading division, which employs 15,000 people and generates €11.4 billion in revenue. A listing, spin-off, or sale is planned for this year, with the company considering a conversion to a partnership limited by shares (KGaA) to retain control in a partial sale.

Operationally, the core business continues to struggle. Second-quarter sales of €8.52 billion fell well short of analyst expectations of €9.42 billion. While adjusted operating profit rose ten percent to €211 million, the first quarter was marred by €401 million in restructuring costs at Steel Europe.

All eyes are now on key upcoming milestones. The company will present its half-year report on May 12, which may also shed light on the progress of talks with India's Jindal group regarding a potential sale of Steel Europe. The production stop in Isbergues begins in June, with the enhanced EU tariffs scheduled to take effect on July 1.

For investors, the path is clear: the EU's tariff shield offers a crucial reprieve for the steel business, but the billions needed to fund Thyssenkrupp's radical transformation can only come from a lucrative exit at TK Elevator. The stock’s trajectory for the coming months will be dictated by which of these two strategic options—an IPO or a sale to Kone—ultimately prevails.