Thyssenkrupp’s Silence Speaks Volumes as Three Mega-Deals Hang in the Balance

Thyssenkrupp navigates three multi-billion-euro transactions: a Canadian submarine bid, a potential elevator stake sale, and a stalled steel divestiture, with stock at €8.75.

The quiet period that descended on Thyssenkrupp on April 22 won’t lift until May 12, but the silence masks a frenzy of activity behind the scenes. The Essen-based industrial conglomerate is juggling no fewer than three multi-billion-euro transactions simultaneously — a Canadian submarine contract worth €37 billion, a potential exit from its elevator stake, and the drawn-out sale of its steel division — all while its stock trades at €8.75, a price that suggests investors are still waiting for proof the turnaround is real.

A Naval Prize That Demands Local Roots

The most immediate deadline falls today, April 29, when Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) must submit a revised bid to the Canadian government. Ottawa rejected the initial proposals from Essen and is now demanding a sweeping technology transfer to build a domestic defense industry. TKMS has responded with a strategic partnership struck in mid-April with QNX, a BlackBerry subsidiary that will supply the operating system for the submarines. The real value of that alliance is political: it satisfies Canada’s insistence on local production content.

The contract’s eye-watering €37 billion price tag makes it the largest single opportunity in Thyssenkrupp’s history. Hanwha Ocean of South Korea is the only remaining competitor. A final decision is expected in early summer.

Should Canada fall through, TKMS is far from stranded. On the home front, the German parliament’s budget committee is expected to vote by the end of June on financing for new air-defense frigates, a program valued at roughly €26 billion. Either way, the naval division is the group’s brightest growth engine.

Elevator Stake: IPO or Trade Sale?

Meanwhile, the fate of the former elevator unit remains unresolved. Thyssenkrupp still holds a 16.2 percent stake in TK Elevator, which is majority-owned by private equity firms Advent International and Cinven. The original plan called for an initial public offering in the second half of 2026, with a target valuation of up to €25 billion. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and UBS have already been appointed global coordinators.

The business itself is performing well: TK Elevator posted €9.2 billion in revenue and a record €1.6 billion in EBITDA for fiscal 2024/25. But market volatility has pushed a direct sale to rival Kone to the forefront of discussions — a cash-and-shares deal that would face serious antitrust hurdles. TK Elevator insists no decision has been made and the IPO remains on the table.

Steel: The Stubborn Stumbling Block

The most painful restructuring is happening in the steel division, where the planned sale to India’s Jindal Steel has hit a wall. The two sides are locked in disputes over future investment commitments, energy costs and — most critically — pension liabilities of €2.4 billion. CEO Miguel López has drawn a firm line, vowing he will not give the business away cheaply. He has also explicitly ruled out a merger with Salzgitter as a fallback.

The operational picture is equally grim. The import crisis in grain-oriented electrical steel has forced Thyssenkrupp Steel to shut its Isbergues site completely from June through September, affecting roughly 1,200 jobs in Gelsenkirchen and Isbergues. Some relief could come from Brussels: the European Parliament voted in January 2026 to cut import quotas by 47 percent and double protective tariffs to 50 percent. If those measures take effect on July 1, the steel unit would get a meaningful tailwind.

Materials Services: Another Spin-Off in the Works

Less visible but equally significant is the strategic review of Materials Services, the group’s trading and distribution arm. According to insiders, Thyssenkrupp is weighing a spin-off, an IPO or a straight sale. One option under consideration is converting the division into a KGaA — a limited partnership with shares — which would allow the parent to retain control even while selling down its stake. The unit generated €11.4 billion in annual revenue and employs more than 15,000 people. An IPO could come as early as this autumn, provided the division’s operating performance holds up in the current quarter.

The May 12 Reckoning

All these threads converge on May 12, when the quiet period ends and Thyssenkrupp releases its half-year results. Analysts are bracing for a weak quarter: consensus forecasts put revenue at €8.13 billion, down from €8.58 billion a year earlier, with earnings per share of just €0.04 versus €0.25 in the prior-year period. The report is expected to clarify the status of the Jindal negotiations and may shed light on the HKM stake sale to Salzgitter, which is scheduled to close on June 1.

The stock has recovered about 22 percent from its late-March low but remains roughly 34 percent below its 52-week high from October 2025. The relative strength index of 33 suggests the market is still skeptical. For a company with a naval jackpot, an elevator windfall and a steel headache all pending, the next few weeks will determine whether Thyssenkrupp can finally turn its portfolio overhaul into a convincing narrative.