Thyssenkrupp's Recovery Faces Overbought Hurdle as Market Awaits Submarine and Steel Decisions

Thyssenkrupp shares surge 50% from March low but RSI at 87.4 signals overbought risk. Macro data, €37B submarine deal, and Nucera's soaring orders vs. profit slump in focus.

The stock of German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp has clawed back more than half its value since March, but the rally is entering a danger zone. Trading at €10.85 after a 1.36% gain on Friday, the shares are now up 50% from the year’s low of €7.15 hit at the end of March. The trouble is that the relative strength index has surged to 87.4, deep into overbought territory, signalling that the move may be running on fumes.

Over the past 30 days, the stock has risen 22.68% and on a year-to-date basis the gain stands at 25.43%. Yet it still remains 18% shy of the 52-week high of €13.24 reached in October 2025. The immediate technical path is defined by two short-term hurdles: a first resistance at €10.95, followed by the more critical mark of €10.96 – the interim peak from 20 May. A clean break above that level would, according to stock3’s chart analysis, open the door to €12.03. On the downside, support lies at €10.25 and, if that fails, at €9.76. A fall below those levels would strip the recent momentum of its technical foundation.

The coming week is packed with macro data that could rattle a cyclical name like Thyssenkrupp. US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day, meaning reduced liquidity on German exchanges. Later in the week, the US releases the core PCE price index, initial jobless claims, the GDP price index, and consumer confidence figures. From the eurozone come consumer and business confidence surveys, while Germany caps the week with May inflation data – the harmonised CPI and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. Any surprise in these numbers could amplify the stock's already elevated volatility.

Billions on the Line in Maritime and Defence

Beyond the macro picture, a string of mega-projects could reshape the group’s outlook. The naval subsidiary thyssenkrupp Marine Systems is the most valuable piece of the conglomerate and is pursuing two blockbuster contracts. The Canadian government is expected to decide between May and June 2026 on the purchase of twelve new submarines in a deal worth up to €37 billion. TKMS is pitching its 212CD class, designed for Arctic operations, against South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, the only remaining competitor.

Simultaneously, the construction of modern frigates for the German navy – one of Europe’s largest arms procurement programmes, valued at roughly €26 billion – is in play. TKMS is currently the sole bidder, and the Bundestag’s budget committee is likely to take a decision in June 2026. The subsidiary’s order backlog already stood at a record €18.7 billion, and after a follow-on order from Norway the figure now exceeds €20 billion.

Nucera’s Split Screen: Orders Soar, Profits Tank

The hydrogen and chlor-alkali subsidiary thyssenkrupp nucera presents a starkly contrasting picture. Order intake quadrupled in the second quarter to €316 million, driven partly by the construction of a 300-megawatt green hydrogen plant in Spain for Moeve – the largest such facility in southern Europe. Yet revenue collapsed by 77% to just €50 million, and the operating loss widened from €4 million to €65 million. The divergence reflects higher costs on existing projects and the termination of a US pilot plant contract.

For the full financial year, Thyssenkrupp expects nucera’s order entry to range between €550 million and €850 million, revenue of €450 million to €550 million, and an EBIT loss of between €80 million and €30 million.

Steel Trade Winds Shift – and Internal Resistance Stiffens

The group’s steel division, traditionally the industrial core, is receiving support from Brussels. In mid-May the European Parliament approved tighter import restrictions that will cut annual duty-free steel volumes to 18.3 million tonnes – roughly 47% below the previous quota – while doubling the safeguard tariff to 50%. The old regime was due to expire at the end of June.

Back at the parent company, CEO Miguel López is pushing ahead with a radical overhaul that is generating internal pushback. Multiple insiders report growing opposition to the plan to spin off the materials trading division, Materials Services, as a partnership limited by shares (KGaA). The restructuring, which aims to turn Thyssenkrupp into a financial holding with independent subsidiaries, has already seen the Q2 revenue guidance trimmed to between minus 3% and 0% year-on-year, with Thyssenkrupp blaming delayed revenue recognition at Decarbon Technologies and a changed product mix at Steel Europe. The full-year targets remain: adjusted EBIT of €500 million to €900 million, free cash flow before M&A of between minus €600 million and minus €300 million, and a net loss of €800 million to €400 million.

The Week Ahead: Setup and Signal

Technically, the stock has broken above its 200-day moving average and now trades about 9% above that line. The support around €10 appears to have firmed, but the 87.4 RSI warns that the rally is stretched. The critical level to watch in the near term is €10.96 – the May 20 high. If Thyssenkrupp’s shares can push decisively past that point, €12 comes into view. If they slip back below €10.25, the recovery loses credibility. The macro data flowing in from both sides of the Atlantic will provide the fuel – or the headwind.