Thyssenkrupp’s Quiet Period Masks a Storm of Strategic Decisions

Thyssenkrupp faces mounting pressure as steel losses mount, a €37B Canadian submarine deadline looms, and elevator stake sale offers a potential lifeline.

The silence from Thyssenkrupp’s management is deafening — and the market is growing restless. With the company in a quiet period ahead of its half-year results on May 12, the stock has slipped to €8.80, roughly nine percent below where it started the year. The shares are now trading around ten percent beneath their 200-day moving average, a technical signal that investors are bracing for bad news.

Behind the official radio silence, the Essen-based industrial conglomerate is juggling a series of high-stakes moves across nearly every division. Restructuring costs at the steel unit alone are expected to hit around €800 million this year, and management has already flagged a high triple-digit million loss for the full fiscal year.

The Canadian Submarine Deadline

The most immediate pressure point sits with the marine division TKMS. By April 29, the unit must present binding industrial partnerships to the Canadian government as part of a new submarine program worth roughly €37 billion. To keep the contract out of the hands of South Korean rivals, TKMS has scrambled to forge alliances with local defence firms CAE and Magellan Aerospace, while securing battery supply through a deal with lithium miner E3 Lithium. Thyssenkrupp holds a strategic 51 percent majority in TKMS, making this a make-or-break moment for the division.

Steel’s Stalemate and the Jindal Question

The core steel business remains the most stubborn headache. Talks with Jindal Steel International over a potential sale have stalled after six months of due diligence, with the two sides deadlocked over investment commitments, energy costs and hefty pension obligations. Insiders now consider a deal unlikely, leaving the division in a dangerous holding pattern.

Some relief could come from Brussels. EU member states and the European Parliament agreed in April to tighten steel import restrictions, slashing the duty-free quota and raising tariffs on excess volumes from 25 percent to 50 percent. The European Parliament is due to vote on doubling existing steel tariffs by the end of June, a move that would provide a meaningful shield for domestic producers.

Meanwhile, the operational restructuring grinds on. Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel will halt production at its Isbergues site in France from June to September 2026, citing Asian imports that now cover more than half the EU market at prices below European production costs. Roughly 600 employees are affected. The company is also pushing ahead with its exit from the Hüttenwerke Krupp-Mannesmann (HKM) joint venture, planning to sell its 50 percent stake to Salzgitter AG by June 1, 2026, with supply from HKM ending four years earlier than originally scheduled — by the close of 2028.

Elevator Windfall on the Horizon

A potential financial lifeline is taking shape in the elevators business. Thyssenkrupp still holds a 16.2 percent stake in TK Elevator, whose majority owners are exploring an IPO or direct sale in the second half of the year. At a targeted valuation of up to €25 billion, the Essen group’s stake would be worth roughly €4 billion — capital the company desperately needs for debt reduction and steel investments. A takeover by rival Kone remains a possibility, though antitrust risks are considerable.

Materials Services and Nucera Add to the Pressure

The materials trading division, Materials Services, could also be reshaped this year. Sources told Reuters that an IPO as early as autumn is under consideration, alongside options for a sale or spin-off. A KGaA structure is being discussed, which would allow Thyssenkrupp to retain control even with a partial sale. The division generated €11.4 billion in revenue in fiscal 2024/25 and employs over 15,000 people.

Adding to the gloom, hydrogen subsidiary Nucera was downgraded to “hold” by Deutsche Bank, which cut its price target to €10, citing weak order intake and the aftermath of a spring profit warning. The stock lost more than three percent on the news, casting a shadow over the parent company’s broader perception.

What Comes Next

The half-year report on May 12 will force management to lay its cards on the table. Investors will be watching for concrete updates on the Jindal negotiations, the progress of steel restructuring, and any clarity on the elevator stake. The HKM sale closure in June and the EU tariff vote later that month will shape the fundamental landscape for the summer.

For now, the DRI project for hydrogen-based steel production in Duisburg continues, but the stock lacks a clear catalyst as long as the steel situation remains unresolved. The next few weeks will determine whether Thyssenkrupp can turn its multiple moving parts into a coherent story — or whether the silence from Essen is simply the calm before a deeper storm.