Thyssenkrupp’s Pivot: Abandoned Steel Talks, a Surging Share Price, and the May 12 Reckoning

Thyssenkrupp shares rally 45% in 30 days after ending Jindal Steel talks, buoyed by regulatory optimism, wage deal, and strong defense orders from TKMS.

Thyssenkrupp enters a decisive week with a curious mix of setbacks and tailwinds. The industrial conglomerate has pulled the plug on negotiations with India’s Jindal Steel International over a stake in its struggling steel division, yet the market has responded with a resounding vote of confidence. The stock has surged roughly 45 percent over the past 30 days, and on Tuesday alone it climbed 7.07 percent to close at €10.51. By Wednesday, the rally extended further, with shares touching €11.29 — a gain of around 7.5 percent from the prior session.

The decision to halt the Jindal talks was framed by management as a response to shifting conditions. Thyssenkrupp cited an improved regulatory landscape for European steelmakers and the successful conclusion of a restructuring wage agreement with the IG Metall union. CEO Miguel López struck an optimistic tone, declaring the outlook for the steel business “as good as it has been in a long time.” DZ-Bank analyst Dirk Schlamp was less effusive, noting that while the announcement was formally new, it contained no substantive surprise — media reports had already flagged obstacles around pension liabilities, capital expenditure needs, and energy costs.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish. Deutsche Bank Research reaffirmed its “Buy” rating with a €14.50 price target, pointing to the group’s strategic overhaul. Jefferies also stuck with “Buy” and a €13.00 target. The current share price still sits roughly 21 percent below its 52-week high, suggesting room for further upside if the turnaround narrative holds.

The first quarter of fiscal 2025/2026, however, laid bare the structural drags. Thyssenkrupp booked restructuring charges of €401 million at Steel Europe, contributing to a group net loss of €353 million. Revenue slipped 8 percent year-on-year to €7.2 billion, while order intake tumbled to €7.7 billion from €12.5 billion — though the prior-year quarter had been inflated by large naval contracts. Adjusted EBIT actually improved 10 percent to €211 million, offering a sliver of underlying progress.

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) provides a counterweight to the steel woes. The defense subsidiary recently secured a frigate order from Brazil, along with a letter of intent for four additional vessels, worth roughly $2 billion in total. Its order backlog now stands at approximately €18 billion. TKMS is being groomed for greater independence, either through an IPO or a sale, and the pipeline of contracts strengthens its negotiating position.

All eyes now turn to May 12, when Thyssenkrupp releases its half-year report. The company has guided for full-year adjusted EBIT of between €500 million and €900 million, with revenue growth ranging from minus 2 percent to plus 1 percent. The interim numbers will test whether those targets remain credible after the Jindal talks collapsed and amid ongoing EU deliberations over steel safeguard tariffs. The analyst conference call is scheduled for 11:00 a.m.

The market’s recent enthusiasm suggests investors are betting that Thyssenkrupp can navigate its steel restructuring without a quick-fix partner, while the defense arm provides a growth engine. The half-year report will either validate that optimism or expose cracks in the foundation.