Thyssenkrupp's Path Forward: A Tale of Two Timelines

Thyssenkrupp shares jump 9% despite quarterly losses. Future hinges on a multi-billion euro green steel project and a lucrative 16.2% stake in TK Elevator, valued up to €25B.

Thyssenkrupp shares surged 9 percent in a single session, yet the stock remains a study in stark contrasts. Trading at EUR 8.50, the equity is still nearly 15 percent below its 200-day moving average, a reflection of the deep-seated challenges overshadowing its long-term strategic bets. The company is navigating a precarious present defined by quarterly losses while its future hinges on a multi-billion euro decarbonization project and the fate of a lucrative stake in its former elevator division.

Current Operations Under Pressure

The immediate financial picture is bleak. For the second quarter of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Thyssenkrupp's revenue of EUR 8.52 billion fell roughly a billion short of the EUR 9.42 billion analysts expected. Instead of a projected profit of USD 0.20 per share, the conglomerate posted a loss of USD 0.07. This follows a difficult first quarter where restructuring costs of EUR 401 million at Steel Europe plunged results into the red, despite a 10 percent rise in the adjusted operating profit to EUR 211 million.

Further clouding the outlook is the hydrogen subsidiary Nucera. Unplanned retrofit costs for delivered modules and a cancelled pilot plant contract in the U.S. forced an earnings warning. Nucera now anticipates an operating loss between EUR 30 and 80 million for the current business year. A new major order for a 300-megawatt hydrogen plant in Andalusia for Spanish energy group Moeve offers little short-term relief.

The Billion-Euro Wildcard: TK Elevator

The most significant potential value driver lies outside the core operations. Thyssenkrupp retains a 16.2 percent stake in its former crown jewel, TK Elevator. The majority owners are exploring an initial public offering in the second half of 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank coordinating. The targeted valuation could reach EUR 25 billion. Operationally, TK Elevator supports this ambition with EUR 9.2 billion in revenue and an adjusted EBIT of EUR 1.4 billion, yielding a robust margin of 14.8 percent.

Simultaneously, Finnish competitor Kone has emerged as a potential buyer. According to Bloomberg, Kone is working with advisors on a possible cash-and-stock deal, also based on a valuation of up to EUR 25 billion. Such a merger would create the world's largest elevator manufacturer. TK Elevator stated at the end of March that no decision has been made and an IPO remains a viable option.

Betting the Future on Green Steel

Amid this financial turbulence, Thyssenkrupp is undertaking one of the world's largest industrial decarbonization projects. At the Duisburg site, construction of a direct reduction plant is underway, with commissioning planned for 2027. This facility aims to avoid up to 3.5 million tons of CO? annually. The success of this green steel transformation is critical but faces headwinds from import pressure and the ongoing steel crisis.

Near-term catalysts loom. The company will publish its half-year report on May 12, 2026, providing a concrete check on its financial resilience. Additionally, the EU's decision on safeguard tariffs for steel imports, effective July 1, could offer meaningful relief to the struggling steel division if implemented as planned.

Analyst sentiment is mixed but leans cautiously optimistic. Fifty-six percent of covering analysts recommend "Buy," with 33 percent advising "Hold" and 11 percent saying "Sell." Valuation metrics paint a contradictory picture: a price-to-sales ratio of 0.14 suggests deep undervaluation, while a forward P/E of 16.91 for 2026 appears more measured. The stock's recent 52-week low of EUR 7.15, hit on March 30, underscores the persistent market skepticism.

For investors, Thyssenkrupp represents a high-stakes dichotomy. The operational business is clearly struggling, yet the company holds assets and is pursuing projects with transformative financial potential. The coming months will test whether its ambitious future can begin to offset the undeniable weaknesses of its present.