Thyssenkrupp's May Rally Faces New Test as HKM Exit and EU Tariffs Reshape the Steel Narrative

Thyssenkrupp shares surge 23% in May; HKM steel sale closes June 1. Q2 orders jump 32% but full-year loss forecast. Steel tariffs, standalone future key.

The German industrial conglomerate heads into June with considerable tailwinds after May delivered a 23% surge, but the coming weeks will test whether operational restructuring or external relief provides the next leg of upside. Having closed the previous week at €11.72, the stock now trades roughly 25% above its 50-day moving average, and the relative strength index at 62 suggests momentum remains intact without overheating.

Monday brings the first concrete structural milestone since the rally began: the sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel’s stake in Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) to Salzgitter, announced in February, closes on 1 June 2026. Salzgitter will operate the facility on a reduced scale, while brammen supplies to Thyssenkrupp Steel are contractually guaranteed through 2028. The transaction cleared its remaining conditions — including approval from Vallourec, a positive continuation opinion, and relevant committee sign-offs — though financial terms were not disclosed. The market’s reaction to this clarity signal, rather than to any lingering uncertainty, will shape sentiment at the start of the week.

The rally found its footing in solid operating momentum. Second-quarter figures released on 12 May showed order intake jumping to €10.6 billion, a 32% year-on-year increase, while revenue reached €8.4 billion. Adjusted EBIT came in at €198 million. Yet the full-year picture remains messy: management expects a net loss between €400 million and €800 million, with adjusted operating profit forecast in a wide €500 million-to-€900 million range that mirrors persistent uncertainty. Revenue is now seen slipping by up to 3% — a slight downgrade from earlier guidance.

Portfolio restructuring continues on multiple fronts. Thyssenkrupp Presta North America will shutter its manufacturing site in Terre Haute, Indiana, by the end of March 2027, affecting around 230 employees, and consolidate operations in Hamilton, Ohio — a move that keeps North America, worth roughly €2.1 billion in annual sales for the automotive unit, as a core market. Meanwhile, the company has hived off its sustainable process technologies into a dedicated subsidiary, Calvion GmbH, based in Ennigerloh, where about 40 staff are working on oxyfuel applications and CO?-reduction solutions — a step consistent with the gradual shift toward a financial holding model.

The steel division, however, remains the most crucial puzzle. While the restructuring financing is locked in through September 2030 and the labour agreement with IG Metall is signed, talks with Jindal Steel about a potential stake have gone quiet, and Thyssenkrupp is now pursuing a standalone solution for the unit. The void left by the Indian partner could be filled by Brussels: the European Parliament in early 2026 approved a proposal to sharply cut steel import quotas and double the safeguard tariff to 50%, with a target implementation date of 1 July. A Council decision expected in the coming weeks could have far more market impact than any technical level — and the stock’s 52-week high of €13.24, about 12% above the current price, is well within striking distance if the protectionist push gathers momentum.

Thyssenkrupp ranked ninth in the MDAX over the 30-day period ending 29 May, gaining 16.46%, just behind Lufthansa's 17.05% and ahead of Bechtle's 15.08%. Delivery Hero led the index with an 80.48% surge. With no quarterly report due in the first week of June, the next scheduled investor touchpoints are the Jefferies German & Swiss Corporate Conference on 23–24 June and the Baader Asset Manager Day on 25 June. Whether the HKM exit is digested as a burden or a catalyst, and how Thyssenkrupp frames the steel unit’s future without Jindal, will determine if the May rally becomes a foundation for further gains or merely a strong month in a long turnaround.