Thyssenkrupp’s May 12 Reckoning: Nucera’s Bleeding Forecast Deepens the Gloom

Thyssenkrupp's half-year results loom as revenue and EPS forecasts tumble, hydrogen unit Nucera slashes guidance, and steel restructuring stalls.

The calendar is circling May 12 with growing unease. That is the day Thyssenkrupp must deliver its half-year results, and the run-up has been anything but reassuring. The quiet period that began on April 22 has locked management in silence, but the numbers already on the table paint a stark picture.

Analyst consensus forecasts second-quarter revenue of around €8.1 billion — a drop of more than 5 percent from the prior year. The earnings slide is even steeper: earnings per share are seen falling to just €0.04, compared with €0.25 in the same period a year earlier. For the full year, the analyst community now expects a loss per share for the first time, a dramatic reversal from the €0.75 profit booked in the previous fiscal year.

The most immediate source of pain is Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the hydrogen subsidiary that has become a liability rather than a growth engine. Nucera slashed its EBIT guidance for the green hydrogen segment deeper into negative territory — from a range of –€80 million to –€55 million down to –€125 million to –€90 million. The culprit is a combination of higher costs for optimization work on modules already delivered to customers and a contract termination. At the group level, that drag has pushed the EBIT forecast from –€30 million to €0 million down to –€80 million to –€30 million.

The market has taken notice. Thyssenkrupp shares closed Monday at €8.94, up 1.34 percent on the day but still down nearly 8 percent since the start of the year. The stock sits just below its 50-day moving average, though it has clawed back roughly 25 percent from its March low of €7.15.

Analysts are recalibrating their models in response. Jefferies trimmed its EBIT estimate for the current fiscal year to €830 million — still well above the consensus of €794 million — citing geopolitical tensions and the persistent weakness in the steel division. The brokerage kept its buy rating and €13 price target, and actually raised its 2027 operating estimates, suggesting the long-term transformation story remains intact even if the near-term path is rocky.

That transformation hinges heavily on the steel business, which remains structurally burdened. Industry experts estimate special charges of around €800 million this year alone. The planned exit from the Hüttenwerke Krupp-Mannesmann (HKM) joint venture is expected to be completed by June 2026. Meanwhile, negotiations with India’s Jindal Steel International over a partial sale of Steel Europe have stalled, according to recent reports, prolonging the uncertainty over the group’s future shape.

Beyond steel, Thyssenkrupp is exploring options for its Materials Services trading division, which generated annual sales of €11.4 billion and employs more than 15,000 people. Reuters reported that management is considering a spin-off, an IPO, or a sale, and is also examining a conversion into a KGaA structure that would allow the company to retain control in a partial disposal.

The hydrogen headache is not limited to Nucera’s guidance cut. Deutsche Bank downgraded the hydrogen specialist to “hold” and slashed its price target to €10, pointing to weak order intake and the fallout from the spring profit warning. Nucera shares fell more than 3 percent, and the weakness is spilling over into sentiment toward the parent company.

Despite the operational headwinds, Thyssenkrupp is pressing ahead with its flagship decarbonization project — the multibillion-euro DRI plant for hydrogen-based steelmaking in Duisburg, with roughly 70 percent of the costs covered by public subsidies. But the path to the group’s medium-term targets now depends critically on resolving the steel stalemate. Until the Jindal talks regain momentum or the HKM exit takes concrete shape by mid-2026, the stock lacks the fundamental catalyst needed for a sustained recovery.