Thyssenkrupp’s Clock Is Ticking: A Canadian Submarine Prize, an Elevator Payday, and Steel’s Bleeding Wound

Thyssenkrupp navigates a €37B Canadian submarine tender, a potential €4B elevator stake sale, and deepening European steel woes as half-year results loom on May 12.

Thyssenkrupp has gone quiet. The industrial conglomerate has imposed a strict communications blackout ahead of its half-year results on May 12, but the strategic fires burning behind the scenes refuse to wait. Three major dossiers — a multibillion-euro submarine tender in Canada, the looming monetisation of its elevator stake, and the deepening crisis in European steel — are all demanding urgent decisions.

The most pressing deadline lands on April 29. That is when Canada wants binding industrial partnership commitments from bidders for its new submarine programme, a contract valued at roughly €37 billion. Thyssenkrupp’s marine division TKMS has been scrambling to lock in local allies, striking deals with domestic defence firms and the lithium producer E3 Lithium to strengthen its hand.

While the submarine race plays out, a far bigger financial prize is coming into focus. Thyssenkrupp still owns 16.2 percent of TK Elevator, the lift business it sold to private equity firms Cinven and Advent. Those owners are targeting an initial public offering in the second half of 2026, with a valuation of up to €25 billion. That would put Thyssenkrupp’s slice at roughly €4 billion — capital the parent desperately needs to pay down debt. A direct sale to Finnish rival Kone remains a live alternative, according to insiders.

Jefferies has kept a buy rating on the stock with a price target of €13. Analyst Tommaso Castello argues that structural improvements in the European steel sector and adept hedging on energy costs give the group a firmer footing, even if geopolitical risks could delay a full recovery until 2027. The market, however, is not yet buying the optimism. Thyssenkrupp shares now trade at €8.94, down nearly eight percent since the start of the year.

The steel division itself remains a drag. Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel is halting production at its French site in Isbergues, with lines going completely dark from June to September 2026, as cheap Asian imports flood Europe. Some relief is on the way from Brussels: the EU is cutting the duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes annually, with any volumes above that level facing a 50 percent tariff.

Behind the scenes, the restructuring of the Materials Services trading unit is also advancing. A stock market listing or a sale is still on the table for this year. The division generated €11.4 billion in revenue in its last reported period. Management is also weighing a new legal structure to retain control in the event of a partial disposal.

Analysts expect the half-year numbers to make grim reading. Consensus forecasts point to revenue of around €8.13 billion, with earnings per share collapsing to just €0.04 — down from €0.25 in the same quarter last year. For the full fiscal year, ten analysts project an average loss of nearly €0.05 per share, a stark reversal from the prior year’s profit.

The communications blackout lifts on May 12, when management presents the half-year report. Investors will be looking for concrete guidance on the TK Elevator stake. The next milestone follows on June 24, when the German budget committee votes on the F127 frigate programme — another potential order for TKMS.