Thyssenkrupp’s Breakup Gamble: Labor Standoff Looms as Stock Flashes Overbought Warning

Investors bet on Thyssenkrupp breakup, sending shares up 27% despite net loss. Supervisory board to vote on spinning off Materials Services in June amid union opposition.

The market is betting big on a shattered Thyssenkrupp, but the real fight is just beginning. Investors have driven the industrial group’s shares up 27% in the past month, ignoring a mounting net loss and a downgraded revenue outlook. At €11.32, the stock sits 58% above its 52-week low of €7.15 from late March — but the relative strength index has climbed to 88.7, a level that typically screams “overbought.” The rally is pure speculation on a radical breakup, and the next crucial test comes in June when the supervisory board will vote on spinning off the largest division, Materials Services.

That unit — which accounts for more than a third of group turnover and employs over 15,000 people — is at the heart of chief executive Miguel López’s restructuring blueprint. He wants to hive it off as a separate entity and open the door to external investors. The structure under discussion is a Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien, or KGaA, a German legal form that would allow Thyssenkrupp to retain operational control even with just a minority stake. Germany’s powerful IG Metall union is pushing back fiercely, warning that workers would lose co-determination rights. The supervisory board already tabled the matter in May; a decision is due in June. If the two sides cannot reach a consensus, the demerger could be delayed by a protracted conflict.

Alongside the board vote, management is preparing an extraordinary general meeting for the summer. Invitations could go out as soon as June, with the shareholder gathering pencilled in for late July or early August. There, investors would formally approve the separation of Materials Services — a move that would mark the first concrete fracture in the old conglomerate structure.

Operationally, the picture remains grim. Thyssenkrupp now expects organic revenue to shrink between zero and three percent in the current fiscal year 2025/2026, walking back earlier guidance that had hinted at slight growth. The company projects a net loss of €400–800 million. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax are still seen landing in the €500–900 million range, supported by cost-cutting programs and better margins in the automotive and marine divisions. Steel Europe, however, continues to drag on results amid weak demand. Talks with potential partner Jindal Steel have stalled, pushing Thyssenkrupp to seek an independent solution for the steel unit.

The rest of the group presents a mixed picture. Marine Systems, the warship builder, boasts an order backlog of more than €20 billion as of the end of March 2026. Automotive Technology is struggling with a tough market and needs a sharp profitability improvement. Analysts at JPMorgan have endorsed the restructuring direction, particularly the closure of unprofitable chassis-technology sites, but they caution that execution risks are high and that labor disputes could derail the timeline.

For now, investors are buying the vision of a holding company whose parts — marine, steel, trade and automotive — are worth more separately than together. But the next few weeks will be decisive. If the board fails to secure labor’s backing, or if the demerger vote hits a snag, the speculative gains of the past month could evaporate as quickly as they appeared. European steel prices, meanwhile, remain a wild card for the group’s broader valuation.