Thyssenkrupp's Breakup Bet Earns Analyst Endorsement Amid Overbought Alarm

Thyssenkrupp shares surge on restructuring plan ACES 2030, Jefferies sets €13 target, but technical indicators signal overbought risk.

The industrial conglomerate's stock has stormed ahead roughly 27 to 30 percent over the past month, defying a backdrop of red ink and a lowered revenue forecast. Investors are piling in on expectations that the dismantling of Thyssenkrupp into standalone units will unlock hidden value — a bet that now carries an explicit thumbs-up from the analyst community.

Jefferies' Tommaso Castello has slapped a "Buy" rating and a €13 price target on the shares, which currently trade at €11.47. That implies further upside of about 13 percent from current levels. Castello argues the restructuring plan — code-named "ACES 2030" — is gathering enough momentum to justify the valuation, provided the planned spin-offs stay on schedule.

Yet the rally has pushed the stock nearly 25 percent above its 50-day moving average, and the relative strength index has climbed to almost 89, a level that typically signals an overheated market. The technical picture suggests the move may be front-loaded, with risk rising that any stumble in the restructuring timetable could wipe out the recent gains quickly.

The sum-of-the-parts logic

Chief executive Miguel López is steering Thyssenkrupp toward a lean financial holding structure where each division operates independently and is eventually eligible for a stock market listing. The goal is to surface the value buried inside a sprawling conglomerate that has long traded at a discount to its peers.

The divisions present starkly different pictures:

• Marine Systems (TKMS) is the star, with an order backlog exceeding €20 billion as of the end of March 2026. Defence spending tailwinds keep the pipeline full.
• Steel Europe remains the problem child. Talks over a potential stake sale to Jindal Steel International were paused in May, and management is now pursuing a "stand-alone solution" — an operational turnaround backed by European Union trade protections. The medium-term aim is to spin off the unit while Thyssenkrupp retains a minority interest.
• Automotive Technology is running an efficiency drive that includes shuttering a US plant, with the objective of stabilising margins in a tough supplier market.

Financials: improvement on the ground, but not in the guidance

Second-quarter figures for fiscal 2025/2026 show that the belt-tightening programme, dubbed APEX, is having a measurable effect. Revenue slipped modestly to €8.38 billion, but adjusted EBIT improved sharply, and the loss per share — which weighed on the year-ago quarter — has been slashed to zero.

Nevertheless, full-year guidance remains cautious. Thyssenkrupp still expects a net loss in the range of €400 million to €800 million for the current financial year. Adjusted operating profit is forecast at €500 million to €900 million, while revenues are projected to decline by up to three percent, partly due to weak demand and restructuring costs.

One lingering headache is the hydrogen subsidiary Nucera. The global green hydrogen market is struggling, with investment decisions on large projects being delayed. That drag is weighing on the Decarbon Technologies segment and offsets some of the progress elsewhere.

What comes next

The supervisory board is set to meet in June to discuss the structure and timeline for the planned demerger of the Materials Services trading division. That decision will be a key test of whether management can execute on its breakup vision.

The next quarterly results are expected around August. Until then, the market's attention will be fixed on the pace of restructuring — and whether the technical overbought condition gives way to a pause or a full-blown correction. For now, the bulls are betting that the sum of the parts exceeds the whole, but the margin for error is razor-thin.