Thyssenkrupp’s Balancing Act: Steel Mill Exit Complete as Naval Arm Courts Canada and India

Thyssenkrupp exits HKM steel venture while its naval unit pursues multi-billion-euro submarine deals in India and Canada, boosting analyst optimism.

Thyssenkrupp’s stock is caught between a shrinking steel footprint and a submarine business that is chasing some of the largest defense contracts in the world. Shares last changed hands at €11.72, giving the industrial group a market capitalization of €7.18 billion. The price has risen roughly 21% since the start of the year, but remains about 11.5% below the 52-week high of €13.24 touched in October 2025.

This week brought a concrete milestone on the steel side. Thyssenkrupp formally completed its withdrawal from the Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) joint venture. Salzgitter will take full control of the steel mill after Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe and Vallourec both exited. The contracts were signed on July 8, and Salzgitter can now begin integrating the site. As a result, the supply agreement between HKM and Thyssenkrupp Steel will end four years earlier than originally planned, in 2028 instead of 2032.

The steel division, meanwhile, is not shy about its grievances with European climate policy. Since the start of July, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has applied to steel imports. Thyssenkrupp Steel has publicly called the system “not fit for purpose” and is demanding a fundamental overhaul of the emissions trading scheme. That criticism has not stopped the group from pushing ahead with green investments. Together with peers including Salzgitter, it is building direct-reduction plants designed to run on hydrogen. A recent analysis by Boston Consulting Group suggests the planned Industrial Accelerator Act could generate annual demand for about 9 million tonnes of low-CO? steel from 2029 onward, mainly through public procurement mandates.

On the naval side, the story is one of opportunity, even if the payoff is years away. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) is in the running for India’s “Project 75-I”, a program worth €8-9 billion to build six conventional submarines. New Delhi has approved the spending, and TKMS is on a shortlist that includes France’s Naval Group, Spain’s Navantia, and South Korea’s Daewoo. The first delivery is not expected before 2030.

TKMS is further along in Canada. Ottawa has already designated it the preferred bidder for up to 12 submarines in a project valued at roughly €62 billion. Talks are now underway with Canadian steelmaker Algoma Steel about a local industrial partnership. A first meeting, facilitated by Canadian politicians, took place on July 7. Algoma has signaled willingness to participate in building the 212CD-class boats. TKMS also has a contract for four frigates for the German navy, securing production slots well into the 2040s.

These naval successes are beginning to shift analyst sentiment. Several experts raised their estimates for TKMS on Monday, and the defense business is increasingly viewed as the key value driver within the group. Price targets for a separately valued marine unit range from €76 to €135, a wide spread that reflects how much uncertainty remains around the timing and probability of the big orders.

The stock’s technical picture offers no strong directional signal. The relative strength index sits at 57, putting it in neutral territory. The shares trade about 6% above the 50-day moving average and roughly 18% above the 200-day average. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at around 52%, underscoring the range of forces tugging at the equity: steel restructuring, geopolitical tailwinds for defense, and the looming shareholder vote on the spin-off of the Materials Services division, expected in August.

For now, the market is weighing near-term exits and long-term bets. The HKM departure is done, the Indian decision is pending, and the Canadian talks are intensifying. Thyssenkrupp’s transformation is advancing on multiple fronts — but the finish lines are still distant.