Thyssenkrupp’s Argentine Bet: A $2.7 Billion Fertiliser Project Takes Centre Stage Ahead of Earnings

Thyssenkrupp balances Argentina expansion with mixed Q3 results; shares up 32.79% YTD as investors eye August 13 quarterly report and restructuring progress.

Thyssenkrupp is juggling two very different narratives this week. On one hand, CEO Miguel Ángel López Borrego touched down in Buenos Aires on Tuesday to push forward a $2.7 billion urea project with Pampa Energía, alongside potential submarine technology for the Argentine navy. On the other, the Essen-based conglomerate is bracing for its next quarterly report, due on 13 August, with investors keen to see whether the operational stabilisation of recent months can be sustained.

The stock, which changed hands at €12.31 on Wednesday — a 0.94% gain on the day — has already priced in a fair amount of optimism. Since the start of the year, shares have surged 32.79%, and over the past 30 trading sessions alone they climbed roughly 19.5% before taking a breather. Tuesday’s close of €12.20 marked a modest 0.85% pullback, but the equity remains within 7.89% of its 52-week high of €13.24, set back in October 2025.

A Tale of Two Quarters

The numbers from the first half of the fiscal year tell a story of recovery, albeit from a low base. In the second quarter of 2024/2025, which ended in March 2025, order intake slumped to €8.1 billion from €8.6 billion a year earlier. Revenue fell to €8.6 billion from €9.1 billion, while adjusted EBIT collapsed to just €19 million from €184 million.

The third quarter brought a degree of stabilisation. Revenue, at €8.2 billion, remained below the prior-year figure of €9.0 billion, but adjusted EBIT edged up to €155 million from €149 million. It was the first time in a while that the group had shown a positive operational trend, even if the headline numbers still lagged year-ago levels.

For the full 2025/2026 fiscal year, management is guiding for revenue growth of between minus 2% and plus 1%. Materials Services and Steel Europe are expected to expand, while Automotive Technology and Decarbon Technologies are forecast to shrink. Adjusted EBIT is seen landing in a range of €500 million to €900 million, underpinned by ongoing restructuring and the APEX performance programme. Free cash flow before M&A, however, is projected to be negative, between minus €600 million and minus €300 million, including roughly €350 million in restructuring outflows, predominantly from Automotive Technology and Steel Europe.

Beyond Steel: Submarines, Fertiliser and Green Hydrogen

The Argentine push marks a significant step in Thyssenkrupp’s strategy to diversify beyond its traditional European core. The Pampa Energía urea project, estimated at $2.7 billion, is slated to produce 2.1 million tonnes annually from 2029. The submarine component is handled through separately listed Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), whose shares dipped 1.08% to €82.10 on Tuesday, even as peers Rheinmetall, Hensoldt and Renk gained ground. The broader demand for naval technology from Latin America underscores the long-term potential of that business.

Meanwhile, a report on Wednesday highlighted the BlackRock project in Canada, where Strategic Resources aims to supply high-grade iron ore for green steel production. Thyssenkrupp and TKMS are seen as beneficiaries of a renewed strategic focus on the steel industry, a narrative that aligns with the group’s pivot toward climate-friendly production methods.

In the hydrogen space, Thyssenkrupp Uhde is involved in an ammonia cracker project with Uniper, handed over to the German government on 5 August. The facility is designed to process four tonnes of hydrogen daily, reinforcing the group’s ambition to position itself as a technology provider for the energy transition.

The Earnings Test

The immediate catalyst for the stock, however, remains the quarterly report due on 13 August. First estimates for the results were expected on Wednesday, though concrete figures had not been released by the time of writing. The market will scrutinise the numbers for evidence that the operational recovery is translating into hard financials, particularly as the share price has already run ahead of the underlying business.

If Thyssenkrupp confirms its full-year guidance and the stabilisation trend continues, investors are likely to view it as proof that the restructuring is gaining traction. A miss, by contrast, could quickly unwind the optimism already baked into the stock. With the 52-week high in sight and a string of international projects adding to the narrative, the next few weeks will determine whether the rally has further to run or whether the market has simply gotten ahead of itself.