Thyssenkrupp’s €37 Billion Canadian Bet and a Resurgent Share Price: Two Sides of a Conglomerate in Flux

Thyssenkrupp awaits a Canadian submarine contract decision, reports half-year results, and advances restructuring as shares surge 35%.

The industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp is navigating one of its most consequential periods in years, with a potential €37 billion Canadian submarine contract, a rallying share price, and a sprawling restructuring plan all converging in the coming weeks. The company submitted its revised bid for the Canadian submarine program on April 29, a deadline that marks the culmination of intense negotiations over a contract that could define its naval division for a generation.

Ottawa had previously rejected initial proposals from both bidders, demanding deeper technology transfers and greater local content. Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) responded by securing a last-minute partnership with BlackBerry subsidiary QNX, which will provide the operating system for the future submarine fleet. The alliance bolsters cybersecurity credentials, but the strategic value lies elsewhere: by tying itself to a Canadian technology firm, TKMS directly addresses the government’s strict procurement criteria. A decision on the preferred supplier is expected between May and late June.

The naval division is already preparing for a potential win. TKMS is investing roughly €200 million in its Wismar shipyard, converting it into a modern hybrid facility that could create up to 1,500 jobs at full capacity. Failure in Canada would leave expensive overcapacity, but the company has fallback options. It remains the sole remaining bidder for Germany’s F127 air-defense program, and is in final-stage negotiations for an Indian submarine project.

While the naval arm pushes outward, the parent company is wrestling with internal upheaval. Thyssenkrupp will publish its half-year results on May 12, a report that will test the market’s optimism. The conglomerate is expected to book special charges of around €800 million, while analysts forecast quarterly revenue of roughly €8.1 billion, down from €8.6 billion a year earlier. The full-year guidance calls for adjusted EBIT between €500 million and €900 million, with a net loss of €400 million to €800 million.

The share price has been on a tear. After climbing to €9.50 in recent trading, the stock has gained about 35% over the past 30 days. Jefferies has reiterated its buy rating with a price target of €13, pointing to the residual value of Thyssenkrupp’s 16% stake in TK Elevator, which the company sold to Finnish lift maker Kone. That holding had been largely ignored by the market but is now back in focus. The investment bank also sees the potential spin-off of the Materials Services trading division as a further catalyst.

Materials Services, which generated annual sales of around €11.4 billion, is at the heart of the restructuring. Reuters has reported that management is weighing three options: a spin-off, an IPO, or a full sale. A decision could come this year, with a potential listing as early as autumn, provided the division improves its performance in the current quarter.

The steel business, meanwhile, remains a drag. Talks over a majority sale to India’s Jindal Steel have stalled. Chief executive Miguel López has argued that the division’s valuation has “significantly improved” thanks to a restructuring wage agreement, the planned sale of Thyssenkrupp’s stake in HKM to Salzgitter, and new EU import tariffs. From July, the bloc plans to halve duty-free import volumes to around 18 million tonnes and double the tariff on excess volumes to 50%, pending formal approval from parliament and the council. The measures are badly needed: Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel has halted production at its French site in Isbergues from June to September, affecting about 600 workers, as Asian import pressure has tripled since 2022.

Technically, the stock remains in a delicate position. It crossed below its 200-day moving average of €8.77 on April 28, and now trades at €9.61 — still roughly 27% below its 52-week high of €13.24, but well above the March low of €7.15. The half-year report and the Canadian decision, both due in May, will determine whether the rally has further room to run or whether the underlying operational challenges reassert themselves.