Thyssenkrupp Faces Mixed Signals as Green Hydrogen Stalls and Restructuring Accelerates

Thyssenkrupp stock up 20% despite hydrogen unit nucera revenue miss; restructuring progress, steel revival, and €10B submarine contract bid bolster outlook.

Thyssenkrupp's stock has been on a tear — up nearly 20% over the past month — but last week's sell-off of 1.9% to €10.55 served as a reminder that not all parts of the conglomerate are firing on the same cylinder. The culprit was thyssenkrupp nucera, the hydrogen electrolysis subsidiary, which delivered a revenue figure that fell far short of analyst expectations.

The company booked just €50 million in sales for the quarter, collapsing from €216 million a year earlier. Analysts had penciled in €140 million, and the loss per share came in at minus €0.50. Technical accounting effects linked to percentage-of-completion revenue recognition in the green hydrogen segment were blamed. For the parent, it is an awkward stumble from a unit widely regarded as a cornerstone of its future growth story.

Yet the broader portfolio transformation continues to provide a powerful counterweight. Thyssenkrupp is in the midst of a multi-front restructuring that spans steel, submarines, and the planned disposal of its Materials Services division. The latter, which generated €11.4 billion in sales last year and employs more than 15,000 people, is being prepared for a spin-off, IPO, or sale — possibly as soon as autumn — with a KGaA structure under consideration to retain control in a partial sale.

The steel business, long a drag on earnings, is also showing signs of rehabilitation. Chief Financial Officer Axel Hamann raised the book value of steel division from €2.4 billion to €3 billion, reflecting improved regulatory prospects and hopes for a more protected European market. From mid-2025, the EU will slash tariff-free import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tonnes, with a 50% punitive tariff on volumes above that threshold. That shift would hand domestic producers like Thyssenkrupp a clear edge against low-cost competitors.

On the operational front, adjusted operating profit climbed to €198 million in the latest quarter, while order intake jumped on the back of a record backlog at the marine systems unit TKMS. That business is now chasing one of the biggest contracts in the industrial group's history: Canada's program for up to twelve submarines, valued at over €10 billion. TKMS chief Oliver Burkhard expects a decision in the first half of the year, and the German government has weighed in at the highest level, with Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil recently lobbying in Ottawa. Thyssenkrupp is competing against South Korea's Hanwha Ocean.

Meanwhile, the planned sale of its stake in HKM to Salzgitter AG is set to close on June 1, with an early termination of supply contracts in 2028. Management is demonstrating execution discipline, even as the group's net income forecast remains wide at minus €800 million to minus €400 million. Available liquidity stands at €4.6 billion, and revenue is now expected to decline by up to 3% or remain flat.

Analysts have responded to the improving fundamentals. Citigroup lifted its price target to €15, while JPMorgan stood pat at €11.80 with a neutral rating. The latter notes that the recent rally remains intact as long as the stock holds above the long-term moving average of €9.87. A breach of that level would cool the restructuring trade.

With a submarine award potentially landing in the coming months and steel tailwinds building, Thyssenkrupp's turnaround narrative has multiple catalysts — but the noise from Nucera shows the path may not be perfectly smooth.