Thyssenkrupp Counts Down to May 12 as Jindal Talks, Tariff Relief and an Elevator IPO Reshape the Outlook

Thyssenkrupp reports weak Q2 earnings as it navigates steel division sale to Jindal, EU tariff relief, Materials Services spin-off, and potential TK Elevator IPO.

The German industrial conglomerate is entering a defining week. On May 12, Thyssenkrupp will publish its second-quarter figures for the 2025/26 financial year, and the bar could hardly be lower. Analysts see earnings per share at just €0.04, a steep drop from the €0.25 recorded in the same period last year, while revenue is forecast to fall roughly 5 percent to €8.13 billion. For the full year, the consensus points to a slight loss per share.

Yet the quarterly numbers are only one piece of a much larger puzzle. Behind the scenes, management is navigating a maze of strategic decisions that will determine the group’s future shape.

A Potential Buyer Emerges for Steel Europe

The most consequential move involves the steel division. After Czech investor Daniel K?etínský unexpectedly walked away from a deal last autumn, attention has shifted to India’s Jindal Steel International. The company is currently conducting due diligence on Steel Europe and market observers expect a binding offer to follow soon. The negotiations are likely to hinge on the division’s multi-billion-euro pension liabilities, a sticking point that has scuppered previous attempts to restructure the business.

Thyssenkrupp is not waiting for a deal to materialize before pressing ahead with its own plans. It intends to exit the Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann joint venture by June 2026, and overall production capacity will be trimmed to between 8.7 million and 9 million tonnes. The centerpiece of the green transformation remains the direct-reduced iron plant in Duisburg, a project carrying an investment tag of roughly €3 billion — 70 percent of which will come from public subsidies. Restructuring costs for the current financial year are estimated at around €800 million.

Trade Winds Shift in Europe’s Favor

The steel business has been battered by cheap imports from Asia, forcing Thyssenkrupp to halt production of electrical steel at its French site in Isbergues for the entire summer. Relief, however, is on the way. Starting in July, the European Union will double protective tariffs on steel imports to as much as 50 percent. That should give the ailing sector some breathing room as it pushes ahead with costly decarbonization efforts.

Materials Services Heads for the Market

Alongside the steel overhaul, Thyssenkrupp is preparing to spin off its trading division, Materials Services. Chief Financial Officer Axel Hamann is already using artificial intelligence to streamline the logistics chain, aiming to make the unit attractive to investors. An initial public offering or a demerger is penciled in for the autumn.

The Elevator Wild Card

Another potential source of liquidity lies with TK Elevator, the former lift subsidiary. The main owners are exploring an IPO in the second half of the year that could value the company at up to €25 billion. A successful listing would provide Thyssenkrupp with a significant financial cushion, helping to reduce debt and fund the ongoing restructuring.

Analyst Views and the Technical Picture

Jefferies recently updated its assessment of the stock. The investment bank trimmed its EBIT forecast for 2026 by 2 percent to €830 million, citing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, but raised its 2027 estimate by 4 percent. Analyst Tommaso Castello sees structural improvements taking hold in Europe and maintains a buy rating with a price target of €13.

The shares have recovered some ground, rising 21 percent over the past month to trade at around €9.03. That still leaves them roughly 32 percent below the 52-week high of €13.24, and the year-to-date performance remains negative at about 7 percent. The relative strength index of 33 points to oversold territory, though fundamental catalysts have yet to generate sustained buying pressure.

What May 12 Will Reveal

The half-year report will lay bare how deeply the restructuring charges have cut into operating profits. For Thyssenkrupp Nucera, the hydrogen subsidiary reporting on the same day, analysts expect a loss of €0.145 per share on revenue of roughly €102 million. Investors will be watching closely to see whether Steel Europe can show even modest operational improvement — or whether the conglomerate will undershoot expectations that are already exceptionally low.