Thyssenkrupp Catches a Double Tailwind as Analysts Turn Bullish

Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley boost Thyssenkrupp shares, with catalysts including Materials Services IPO, TK Elevator sale, and EU steel import caps driving optimism.

Investors in Thyssenkrupp are enjoying a rare moment of optimism. The stock has surged roughly 15 percent over the past week, propelled by a pair of analyst upgrades and a growing conviction that the conglomerate’s long-awaited portfolio overhaul is finally gaining traction. The shares closed at 10.19 euros in April, marking a 6 percent daily gain and breaching their 50-day moving average — a technical buy signal that has drawn fresh attention from the market.

Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley Lead the Charge

The bullish sentiment crystallized on Thursday when Deutsche Bank lifted its rating on Thyssenkrupp from “Hold” to “Buy,” raising its price target to 14.50 euros from 11 euros. Analyst Bastian Synagowitz cited an attractive risk-reward profile following recent share price weakness, pointing to a series of concrete value catalysts. At the current price of around 10.20 euros, the new target implies roughly 42 percent upside. In a best-case scenario, the bank sees potential for the stock to double, though it acknowledges significant volatility along the way.

Morgan Stanley has also been active, reporting an increased stake in the company to just over 6 percent of voting rights. The US investment bank’s growing influence adds another layer of institutional confidence to the story.

Three Catalysts, One Conglomerate in Flux

The rally is not simply about analyst upgrades. Three separate portfolio decisions are converging this spring, each capable of reshaping Thyssenkrupp’s future.

The most immediate catalyst involves Materials Services, the group’s trading division with annual sales of 11.4 billion euros. Management is weighing a spin-off, an IPO, or a direct sale. Insiders suggest an IPO could come as early as autumn, provided the division improves its performance in the current quarter.

Meanwhile, the planned listing of TK Elevator is gathering pace. Private equity firms Advent and Cinven are driving the process, with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank acting as advisers. A valuation of 25 billion euros is being discussed. Thyssenkrupp still holds just over 16 percent of the elevator unit, and a sale could unlock roughly 4 billion euros. Given recent market turbulence, the main shareholders are reportedly also considering a direct sale as an alternative.

Adding to the tailwinds, the European Parliament has agreed to cap tariff-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes per year. Imports above that threshold would face a 50 percent duty. The formal approval from both Parliament and the Council is still pending, but the move provides a meaningful buffer for European steelmakers.

Steel Division Remains the Stubborn Problem

For all the progress elsewhere, the steel division continues to weigh on the narrative. Talks over a majority sale to Jindal Steel have stalled. CEO Miguel López insists the division’s valuation has “improved significantly” thanks to a restructuring collective agreement, the planned sale of the HKM stake to Salzgitter, and the new EU tariffs. He has made clear he will not sell under pressure.

The strain in the steel business is visible in a stark detail: Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel will halt production at its French site in Isbergues from June through September, affecting around 600 employees. The culprit is Asian import pressure, which has tripled since 2022.

A Submarine Bet Worth 37 Billion Euros

On the brighter side, the marine division TKMS is positioning itself for a transformative contract. The subsidiary has submitted a revised bid for a Canadian submarine program, with a potential order value of 37 billion euros. Ottawa is expected to decide on a supplier by early summer.

What the Half-Year Report Will Reveal

The next major milestone comes on May 12, 2026, when Thyssenkrupp publishes its half-year results. Analysts expect revenue of around 8.1 billion euros, down from 8.6 billion euros in the prior-year period. The company has guided for adjusted EBIT of between 500 million and 900 million euros. On the net income line, it anticipates a loss — the size of which will depend heavily on how quickly the portfolio restructuring starts to bear fruit.

Investors will be looking for concrete details on the planned separation of TKMS, as well as the future direction of the steel division. With four billion euros potentially on the table from the elevator stake, a submarine contract that could reshape the defense business, and steel finally getting some regulatory relief, Thyssenkrupp is entering a period where the pieces could finally fall into place — or fall apart.