Thyssenkrupp Catches a Double Tailwind as Analysts Turn Bullish

Deutsche Bank and Jefferies upgrade Thyssenkrupp, sending shares up 34% in a month. Catalysts include TK Elevator stake, potential Materials Services IPO, and tighter EU steel import rules.

The industrial conglomerate that spent months languishing under the weight of geopolitical anxiety and a stalled steel transaction is suddenly enjoying a rare moment in the sun. Two heavyweight investment houses have issued upgrades in quick succession, sending the stock surging and reigniting debate about whether the worst is finally over for Thyssenkrupp.

Deutsche Bank Research delivered the most dramatic pivot on Thursday, flipping its rating from “Hold” to “Buy” and lifting the price target from €11.00 to €14.50. Analyst Bastian Synagowitz argued the risk-reward profile had become too compelling to ignore, even floating the possibility that the shares could double under ideal conditions. The market wasted no time responding — the stock jumped nearly five percent in Xetra trading to €10.09, extending a rally that has already delivered a 34 percent gain over the past month.

The move followed a similar endorsement from Jefferies, which reaffirmed its buy recommendation with a €13 price target and pointed to a series of strategic catalysts that had been largely overlooked. Chief among them is the lingering value in Thyssenkrupp’s roughly 16 percent stake in TK Elevator, the elevator division sold to Finnish rival Kone in a deal that valued the business at around €29 billion. That holding had been priced out of the stock for months, analysts said, but is now drawing fresh attention.

A Pile-Up of Catalysts

Jefferies also highlighted the potential for a separation of Materials Services, the trading division that generated annual sales of roughly €11 billion and employs more than 15,000 people. According to Reuters, Thyssenkrupp is weighing three options for the unit: a spin-off, an initial public offering, or a direct sale. People familiar with the matter indicated a decision could come as early as 2026, with an IPO theoretically possible by autumn if the division improves its performance in the current quarter.

The improving sentiment is also being supported by shifts in the regulatory landscape. From July 2026, the European Union is expected to tighten steel import rules, cutting the duty-free quota by nearly half to just over 18 million tonnes and doubling the tariff on excess volumes to 50 percent. The formal approval from the European Parliament and Council is still pending, but the direction of travel is clear. The measures are badly needed: Thyssenkrupp Electrical Steel recently announced it would halt production at its French site in Isbergues from June through September, affecting around 600 workers, as Asian import pressure has tripled since 2022.

The Steel Deal That Won’t Die

The negotiations over a majority sale of Thyssenkrupp’s steel division to India’s Jindal Steel remain a central — and unresolved — plotline. The talks have hit a rough patch, but CEO Miguel López has made clear he is in no hurry. He recently argued that the division’s valuation had “improved significantly” thanks to a restructuring wage agreement, the planned sale of the HKM stake to Salzgitter, and the impending EU tariffs. The message is unmistakable: Thyssenkrupp will not sell on the cheap.

The stock’s recent weakness, Deutsche Bank noted, stemmed largely from fears that the Jindal deal might collapse, compounded by broader geopolitical jitters. Those same fears, however, have now created what Synagowitz described as an attractive entry point. The shares have recovered sharply from their March low of €7.15, though they still trade roughly 27 percent below the 52-week high of €13.24.

Reality Check Ahead

For all the newfound optimism, the operating environment remains fraught. German industrial production stumbled in the first quarter, inflation stood at 2.7 percent in March, and the Iran conflict continues to cast a shadow over European energy prices. The stock carries an annualized volatility of over 62 percent, a reminder that any rally in Thyssenkrupp shares is rarely a straight line.

The next major test comes on May 12, when the company releases its half-year results. Analysts expect revenue of roughly €8.1 billion, down from €8.6 billion in the same period last year. The full-year guidance calls for adjusted EBIT between €500 million and €900 million, while the net result is forecast to be a loss of between €400 million and €800 million. Those numbers will determine whether the market’s renewed enthusiasm is built on solid ground — or just another false dawn for a conglomerate that has seen plenty of them.