The US Military's Wolfram Ultimatum Is Reshaping Almonty's Trajectory

Almonty Industries gains as US military bans Chinese tungsten by 2027; Sangdong mine ramps up, shares surge 730%.

A regulatory deadline set for 2027 is quietly redrawing the competitive landscape for critical minerals. That year, the US military will be legally barred from using Chinese tungsten in its defense equipment, and Almonty Industries has positioned itself as the most direct beneficiary of that shift. The market has already priced in much of that expectation — shares have surged roughly 730 percent over the past twelve months, recently trading at C$30.78.

The stock slipped slightly on the day, but the broader momentum remains intact. Eight analysts currently rate the miner a buy, betting on a supply crunch that looks increasingly inevitable. China controls more than 80 percent of global tungsten output and has already imposed export restrictions, leaving Western defense contractors scrambling for alternatives.

A Headquarters Move Signals Deeper Pentagon Ties

Almonty completed the relocation of its corporate headquarters from Toronto to Dillon, Montana in mid-April, a move that places it physically closer to US government agencies and major defense contractors. The company has also appointed several retired US military officers to its board and formed a partnership with American Defense International. These steps are part of a deliberate strategy to embed the miner within the US defense supply chain, a shift that Texas Capital recently rewarded with a "Strong Buy" rating.

The investment bank sees fair value at C$43.36 based on cash-flow models, well above the current price of around C$28.84. The analysts anticipate strong cash generation once the company's new production phases ramp up.

Sangdong Delivers, But Costs Bite

The operational engine of this growth story sits in South Korea. The Sangdong mine returned to commercial production in March after a three-decade hiatus, with initial processing capacity of 640,000 tonnes of ore per year. That should yield roughly 2,300 tonnes of tungsten concentrate annually — enough to cover about 40 percent of global supply outside Chinese control.

DA Davidson expects the operation to reach full capacity by the second quarter of 2026. A long-term off-take agreement with a leading US defense contractor locks in minimum prices for a significant portion of early output. Management is already planning a second expansion phase, set for completion in 2027, which would double processing capacity.

The buildout has come at a cost. In the final quarter of last year, revenue climbed to C$8.72 million, but the company posted a loss of C$0.48 per share. Analysts attribute the red ink to startup expenses and corporate restructuring. Almonty funded the expansion through a Nasdaq listing last summer and a subsequent financing round worth US$129 million.

Montana Adds a Domestic Option

Alongside its Korean operations, Almonty is advancing the Gentung deposit in Montana, considered one of the most advanced undeveloped tungsten resources in the United States. Previous owners completed substantial work on permits and infrastructure, giving the project an unusually fast path to production.

Initial designs target annual output of around 140,000 metric tonne units, with first production slated for the second half of 2026. That timeline would put the mine into operation just ahead of the 2027 import ban, filling a gap that the US defense and semiconductor industries will need to close.

The next few months will test whether management can execute on both fronts simultaneously. With Sangdong scaling up and Gentung aiming for a late-2026 start, the company must prove its facilities can meet ambitious schedules. If the ramp-up succeeds, Almonty will occupy precisely the space the US military's tungsten ultimatum has created.