The Trade Desk's May 7 Earnings: A Pivotal Moment for a Beaten-Down Stock

Despite a 50% stock drop, 49% of analysts rate The Trade Desk a buy. Q1 earnings on May 7 will test optimism amid retail media expansion and headwinds.

The Trade Desk has lost more than half its value over the past year, yet Wall Street remains stubbornly bullish. With 49% of analysts still rating the stock a buy and a consensus price target of $30 — roughly 30% above current levels — the disconnect between market sentiment and analyst conviction is glaring. All eyes are now on May 7, when the company reports first-quarter results after the US market close.

A Fresh Strategic Play in Retail Media

Just days before the earnings release, The Trade Desk unveiled a significant strategic move: integrating its platform directly into the commerce media systems of Skai and Pacvue. Starting in the third quarter of 2026, brands and agencies will be able to manage programmatic campaigns on The Trade Desk from within those interfaces, unifying upper-funnel channels like connected TV and digital audio with lower-funnel investments such as retail media and search.

The integration marks a subtle but important shift. Rather than buying search or social ad inventory inside walled gardens, The Trade Desk is positioning itself alongside that inventory — giving retail media buyers a direct way to compare open-web programmatic buys with closed ecosystems. Industry observers view the move as a cautious first step toward embedding The Trade Desk's product on third-party platforms, potentially elevating its standing alongside giants like Amazon and Google.

The Numbers That Matter

For the first quarter, management is targeting at least $678 million in revenue and roughly $195 million in adjusted EBITDA. Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.12, a 20% year-over-year increase. The company has beaten profit estimates for three consecutive quarters, a streak that, if extended, could put pressure on the 11% of float currently sold short — making The Trade Desk one of the most heavily shorted large-cap stocks.

Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $2.9 billion, representing 18% growth — down from 26% the prior year. Net income rose 15% to $443 million, weighed down by higher tax expenses. For 2026, analysts project EPS of $1.27, a roughly 41% jump from 2025.

Headwinds That Won't Go Away

Not everyone is convinced the recovery is on track. Jefferies has expressed skepticism ahead of the report, warning that second-half expectations and platform fee revenue may be too ambitious — especially after several large clients publicly questioned the fee structure. Competition from AI-native platforms is also intensifying.

The company has faced additional turbulence: reports of major agencies pulling back from OpenPath over transparency and economic disputes, leadership changes, and audit issues. The integration with Pacvue and Skai arrives at a time when The Trade Desk needs to demonstrate it can navigate these challenges while reigniting growth.

What UBS and the Street Are Watching

UBS reiterated its buy rating on April 21 with a $31 price target, betting that tough year-over-year comparisons will ease and ad budgets will recover. The bank also points to the US midterm elections as a potential catalyst for digital ad demand. Among 34 analysts covering the stock, the average rating remains "buy."

The company's growth drivers include its Kokai AI platform, connected TV advertising, and retail data solutions — areas where demand is structurally rising. But the May 7 report will be the first major test of whether the strategic pivot toward commerce media resonates with investors. How convincingly management addresses questions about fees, competition, and agency relationships will likely determine whether the stock can claw back some of its losses — or sink deeper into bear territory.