The Gigawatt Race: Nebius Bet Big on Physical AI Infrastructure

Nebius joins Nasdaq-100 on June 22, riding $46B in AI infrastructure deals from Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia. Revenue jumps 684% but 20% short float and insider sales raise caution.

When Nebius secures its place in the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, it will mark a milestone not just for the stock but for an entire industrial bet on the raw physics of artificial intelligence. The company is no longer a speculative AI play—it is a capital-intensive infrastructure builder racing to deliver four gigawatts of contracted capacity by year-end, anchored by a $27 billion deal with Meta.

The scale of that commitment is staggering. Nebius has locked in a five-year agreement with the social media giant worth $27 billion, a Microsoft revenue deal of $17 billion, and a planned $2 billion investment from Nvidia through 2030. Total contracted volume now stands at roughly $46 billion. The chip giant already owns 8.3 percent of the company, making Nebius a preferred channel for its latest hardware.

That hardware needs enormous amounts of energy and physical space. To meet demand, Nebius has signed a 328-megawatt partnership with Bloom Energy and a 22-megawatt ten-year contract with Kao Data in the UK. The company is also bringing a new AI data centre in Pennsylvania online. The ultimate target is five gigawatts of capacity, which will require fresh hyperscaler clients soon after the Meta deal is fully serviced.

The financials reflect this hyper-growth phase. Revenue jumped 684 percent year-on-year to $399 million in the first quarter. The stock has surged roughly 480 percent over the past twelve months and climbed 219 percent since the start of the year, closing at €244.90 after hitting an all-time high of €257.60 on June 17. The relative strength index sits at 68.5, flirting with overbought territory.

But the cost of expansion is mounting. Nebius plans to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion in 2026 alone. The acquisition of Eigen AI for $643 million, completed on June 10, added to the debt burden. Short sellers have taken notice—roughly 20 percent of the free float is sold short, reflecting deep skepticism about the valuation at a market capitalisation of nearly €51 billion.

Insider behaviour adds another layer of caution. Board chair John Boynton sold nearly $1.5 million worth of shares recently. Over the past 90 days, executives have cashed out a combined $132 million. The CEO also reduced his stake. Analysts remain broadly bullish, with an average price target around $244 and some seeing fair value at $380. Yet the stock trades 45 percent above its 50-day moving average, a level that historically invites profit-taking.

The Nasdaq-100 inclusion forces passive index funds to buy the stock en masse, providing a near-term catalyst. But the real test begins after the rebalancing. Nebius must prove it can execute on its megawatt promises without operational missteps. If the explosive revenue growth fails to keep pace with the capital burn, the premium valuation leaves little room for error. The Monday deadline marks the first serious trial for a stock that has already priced in a triumphant future.