The Astronomical Valuation of Rigetti Computing: A Speculative Bet on Quantum’s Future

Rigetti US76655K1034

Rigetti Computing has emerged as one of the most dramatic stock market narratives of the year. Investors have placed massive bets on a quantum computing breakthrough, fueling a staggering share price surge exceeding 2,750% since the start of 2024. However, skepticism is mounting as the chasm between the company's minimal revenue and its multi-billion dollar market capitalization becomes impossible to ignore, raising questions about whether reality can ever match the current market fantasy.

Presently, the equity's movement is being dictated more by news flow and geopolitical sentiment than by fundamental business performance. Recent comments from Nobel laureate John Martinis provided a short-lived boost; he called for enhanced U.S. government support for the domestic quantum industry to compete with China. Such statements fuel speculation about potential future government contracts.

Yet the mood is shifting. The stock declined by 6.56% on Friday to €24.20. Over a 30-day horizon, it now shows a loss of approximately 25%. This pullback suggests that after the parabolic rally, investors are increasingly taking profits, and the market is struggling to establish a stable footing.

A Fundamental Disconnect

Examining the financials reveals a nearly surreal disparity between market valuation and operational scale. While the company commands a market valuation in the range of $8 to $9 billion, Rigetti reported revenue of just $1.95 million for the third quarter of 2025.

A price-to-sales multiple exceeding 1,000 is exceptionally unusual, even for aggressive technology growth stocks, and indicates a market that may be severely overheated. This is compounded by a reported net loss of $201 million last quarter. Although this shortfall was significantly distorted by $149 million in non-cash effects related to warrant liabilities, the company's operational costs remain elevated. Rigetti continues to burn cash for research and development, though it is currently drawing from a still-solid cash position of about $559 million.

The Long-Term Gamble

In essence, investors are paying almost exclusively for Rigetti's long-term roadmap. The company plans to bring a system with over 1,000 qubits to market by 2027. Minor successes, such as a $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory, offer technical validation for its technology but fall far short of economically justifying a multi-billion dollar valuation.

The shares are in a highly speculative phase. The vast gap separating a $9 billion market cap from quarterly revenues in the low single-digit millions represents substantial potential for a downward correction. Shareholders are betting everything on the flawless execution of the company's strategy through 2027, a scenario that leaves the equity extremely vulnerable to further volatility in the interim.